After two years of persistent drought conditions, the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) on Friday announced that heavy rains are expected over East Africa in the next three months.
The IGAD is an eight-country trade bloc in Africa and it includes governments from the Horn of Africa, Nile Valley and the African Great Lakes
The statement obtained by APA indicates that Southern to Central parts of the region have the highest chances of receiving more rain than normally at this time of the year, particularly southern, central and northern Tanzania, eastern Uganda, northern Burundi, eastern Rwanda, southern and western Kenya, eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, a few localities in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, and southern and northern Somalia.
However, western South Sudan, and central and north-eastern Ethiopia are likely to receive less rain than usual. ICPAC also estimates that high temperatures could be recorded in southern Tanzania, most of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and northern Sudan.
The March to May (MAM) season constitutes an important rainfall season, particularly in the equatorial parts of the region where it contributes up to 70% of the total annual rainfall, Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director said.
In addition, he pointed out that “it is very important to note that global climate models have low skill in predicting the MAM season, and stakeholders should prepare for the worst”
“Given that we have experienced below average rainfall in the past three seasons, a wetter than normal season doesn’t mean that the region will immediately recover from the impacts of drought, especially in the eastern parts of the Horn,” Dr Guleid said.
Reports show that the regions worst hit by drought, the current trends are comparable to those observed during the 2010-2011 famine and 2016-2017 drought emergency.
In this respect, the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group, co-chaired by IGAD and FAO, estimates that 12 to 14 million people are currently highly food insecure in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.
Looking ahead, it is likely that the situation in the affected areas will intensify through the transition period to the 2022 March-May (MAM) rainfall season – this is being closely monitored and reported in ICPAC’s Drought Situation Updates.
In view of these grim realities, IGAD renews its call for an immediate scaling-up of humanitarian and risk reduction efforts, primarily by the respective national governments, humanitarian actors, and development partners.
“Humanitarian actors are also called to advocate for no-regret interventions. Lastly, IGAD urges governments of Member States to step-up investments in drought resilience-enhancing interventions and adopt innovative drought risk management approaches, including activation of forecast based anticipatory actions,” the statement said.
CU/GIK/APA