An expert on the geopolitics of the Sahel and Africa, Nigerian journalist Seidik Abba analysed for APA the stakes of the Chadian national dialogue launched on August 20 but temporarily suspended due to some disagreements.
Two weeks after its opening, the Chadian inclusive national dialogue was temporarily suspended. What is behind this decision?
Several factors can be mentioned to explain this suspension. First, there is the authorities’ desire to give the dialogue a chance to become even more inclusive. In addition to the politico-military movements, there is a part of the political class, first and foremost the Transformers of Success Masra, which does not participate in the dialogue.
The same applies to part of civil society, such as the Wakit Tama collective. With these absences, there is a risk that the dialogue will not have the desired inclusive character in order to obtain the broadest possible consensus on the decisions that will emerge.
The authorities felt that a last chance should be given to the negotiations with the parties that are not present. The Qatari facilitators were in N’Djamena. They met with some political and civil society leaders in an attempt to persuade them. Hope is not lost. Many are also looking to France to see if it can contribute to a wider participation, so negotiations are continuing during this period of suspension.
The other reason is to allow everyone to get to know as widely as possible the draft texts that have been prepared for discussion. Negotiations are also underway with the rebels of the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) to convince them to participate in the dialogue. The FACT has set a number of preconditions, including the release of detainees, an amnesty and guarantees. It felt that none of this was taken into account and that it could not participate. But mediation is underway. The suspension is intended to remove the last obstacles and reticence so that the dialogue can be resumed in earnest and be as consensual and inclusive as possible. This is the first time in Chad’s political history that we have had a dialogue as broad as this one, with a sovereign character and decisions that should be fully enforceable.
Why did the appointment of an ad hoc committee to facilitate the participation of all components of Chadian society in the dialogue provoke the withdrawal of certain organisations?
This withdrawal symbolises the difficulty of the Chadian political class. At a time when we are trying to expand, others have withdrawn. They believe that they have already shown goodwill by coming to the dialogue and do not see it as a good idea to go and beg those who are not present. All this shows the lack of serenity in which things are done. It is above all this willingness to make concessions that has offended a certain number of actors. In my opinion, this is not the best way to promote dialogue. But with the negotiations underway, with the will of all parties, everyone could be led to reconsider their position. From the moment that we are already present in N’Djamena, it means that we have accepted the idea of dialogue.
The dialogue is being held with some forty politico-military groups, but without the FACT, which was responsible for the death of President Idriss Deby. Does this absence call into question the credibility of the talks?
FACT, one of the largest political-military movements in Chad, chose to be absent because it believes that the preconditions it set have not been met. These include the release of political detainees, the creation of a calm framework for the opening and holding of dialogue, security guarantees, etc.
It is clear that this is an important element, and that it would have been more correct for the Fact to be present at the discussion. But this absence does not invalidate the dialogue. If the dialogue achieves good results, the FACT’s absence could backfire. The boycott is always a double-edged sword. Today, what is at stake is the outcome of the dialogue. If, at the end, a consensus is reached on the holding of free, transparent and democratic elections, on the structure responsible for organising them and on a new constitution, the FACT could be the big loser.
For this reason, it is necessary to be present in order to be able to change things. Since it was understood that there were no taboos, everything could be put on the table and discussed. The right method would have been to come and see how to create the balance of power. From my point of view, there is no risk that the credibility of the decisions will be affected by the absence of FACT, provided that they are good ones. If there is a consensus on the main issues (presidential election, release of detainees, …), people will not care so much about the non-participation of one entity (whatever its size).
Before the opening of the dialogue, the current chairperson of the African Union (AU), Senegalese Macky Sall, met with the Chadian transitional president in NDjamena. What should be the outcome of this visit?
In his capacity as current chairman of the African Union, President Macky Sall was in N’Djamena on the eve of the opening of the dialogue to encourage the Chadian parties and support the process. It is important that the Chadians feel that they are supported in their approach by Africa first, then by the international community.
President Macky Sall, in his capacity as current chairman of the African Union, has come to express this. Chad is a pillar of the security issue in the Sahel and in the Lake Chad basin. Any approach that aims to encourage dialogue and a negotiated solution between the Chadian parties can only benefit the stability of Africa and the sub-region.
Chad is engaged in the fight against Boko Haram and other terrorist groups in the Western Sahel, particularly in the Tri-border area. Chadian soldiers are deployed there in support of Niger and Burkina Faso, so it is important that President Sall comes to encourage the Chadian parties and help them to overcome any reluctance to engage in dialogue.
The issues at stake go far beyond the Chadian and sub-regional framework, particularly the Lake Chad basin, to concern the whole of West Africa. From the moment it involves the stability of the whole continent, it is important that the current chairperson of the African Union comes to tell the Chadian parties that “Africa is watching you, Africa stands with you.”
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