A return to pre-pandemic employment levels is not expected before 2023, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
The global labour market will take longer to recover. The International Labour Organisation (ILO), pointing to the uncertainty related to the evolution and duration of the pandemic of the new Coronavirus, especially with the appearance of the Omicron variant, has been forced to revise its forecasts downwards.
It now expects an overall deficit in hours worked equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. That’s twice as much as the ILO was still forecasting in May 2021, according to the 2022 Trends Report released Monday. In May 2021, the U.N. organization projected a shortfall at 26 million full-time equivalent jobs.
“Two years after the start of the crisis, the outlook remains fragile and the road to recovery is slow and uncertain,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder was quoted as saying in the note.
According to the ILO boss, the pandemic has reduced the demand and supply of jobs and the situation will remain the same as long as it continues.
In 2022, the Geneva-based organization estimates that about 207 million people will be unemployed, up from 186 million three years ago. The labor force participation rate is expected to remain 1.2 percentage points lower over the same period.
“We will not recover from this pandemic without a broad-based recovery in the labor market. And to be sustainable, this recovery must be based on the principles of decent work, including health and safety, equality, social protection and social dialogue,” Guy Ryder warned.
According to the report, North America and Europe show the strongest signs of recovery, while Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean do not. At the country level, the ILO finds that “labor market recovery is stronger in high-income countries, while it is weaker in lower middle-income economies.”
“The disproportionate impact of the crisis on women’s employment is expected to persist in the coming years,” the report further states, adding that women are expected to continue to be more affected in the coming years. In total, 90 percent of those affected by the pandemic in their work have left their jobs and are returning to work less quickly than men.
In addition, the report notes, school closures, sometimes for very long periods, “will have long-term cascading implications” for young people, especially those without Internet access.
All of this makes Guy Ryder say that “without concerted effort and effective policies at the international and national levels, it is likely to take years in some countries to repair the damage,” with long-term consequences “for participation rates, household income, but also for social and even political cohesion”.
ARD/te/fss/abj/APA