In an interview with APA, Ibrahima Kane, a Program Officer at the NGO OSIWA specializing in regional issues, deciphers the political and security prospects for the new junta in Burkina Faso in the face of ECOWAS, which is urging it to respect the duration of the transition.
After overthrowing Lieutenant-Colonel Damiba, Captain Ibrahim Traore has given several interviews to the media. How do you analyze this communication strategy?
Listening to his interviews and interventions, one realizes that he is someone who was not prepared to carry out a coup. I think that the putsch came from the dissatisfaction of part of the troops with the procrastination of the military regime, the lack of coordination on the ground between the military units and the fact that the army blames all the problems it encounters on the incompetence of the leadership team. This shows how divided the Burkinabe army is and how fragile the state is. Captain Traore is the head of a unit stationed in the town of Kaya, about 150 km from Ouagadougou. He left from there to seize power. This shows how completely decayed the Burkinabe state is.
Why did the Burkinabe army take so long to rally behind the new junta leader?
Since the fall of Blaise Compaore (1987 – 2014), the Burkinabe army has been divided for two or three main reasons. President Compaore had created a special regiment that was the most equipped in the country to protect him and his interests. And there were the rest of the troops. When he lost power, his successors practically dissolved this unit. Its dissolution did not allow the army to reorganize and consolidate to protect the state.
When Blaise Compaore lost power, the entire intelligence system was completely dismantled by the new rulers. The army was therefore handicapped in terms of information to prepare the reactions of the security services in the protection of people and property on Burkinabe territory. This disorganization of the army is showing its effects so far in this country. It is going to be a huge task, especially in the current context, to reorganize the army and establish better coordination in order to regain control of the terrain in the face of the jihadists. According to the information at our disposal, eleven of the 13 regions of Burkina Faso are practically in the hands of or under attack by jihadist groups. This means that almost the entire country is insecure.
Captain Traore says he will take care of business as usual before appointing a transitional president. How should he do this?
This message was intended more for the outside world, for the partners, to show that he is not particularly keen on power. But I am convinced that if things go as they should, he will stay in power. The other day, he was presented as the one the military has designated to be their leader. Unless something extraordinary happens, I don’t see how the military is going to hand over power to civilians and go about their business. One of the reasons for the seizure of power, according to the new military junta, is the lack of support from the central government for the troops on the ground to carry out their missions. The military is in a better position than anyone to organize this coordination and to ensure that the bulk of the troops on the ground are supported.
With that said, Captain Traore also committed to the 24 months (of transition). Only eight months have passed since the Damiba coup. There are about sixteen months left that Ibrahim Traore will have to manage to regain control on the ground and then organize elections. However, I find it difficult to see how these sixteen months can be maintained given the current state of insecurity in the country.
How should he behave between now and the meetings that will designate the next president of the transition?
The priority for him is to reorganize the army and the security services so that they can, at least, respond more effectively to attacks on the army throughout the country.
The army also needs to dislodge the insurgents in certain strategic locations if it does not want them to become permanently established on the ground; because there are many gold mines occupied by the jihadists. They are used to finance their war efforts. It is urgent to dislodge them there to avoid a long war. In such a context, the fight against terrorism will be complicated and the organization of elections will be practically impossible. (…)
But since a delegation from the Economic Community of West African States (ecowas) is in Ouagadougou today (Tuesday, october 4), discussions with the new junta will give some idea of whether or not the remaining sixteen months for the organization of elections will be respected.
If the transition period is not respected, should ecowas impose the same sanctions on Burkina as it did on Mali?
Captain Traoré himself has accepted the conditions set by Damiba. There is a good chance that he will respect the sixteen-month deadline. That was the condition set by ECOWAS (…) Now ECOWAS must be realistic in the sense that since they signed these agreements, the security situation on the ground has deteriorated. If elections are not held throughout the country, the country will be divided. Ecowas must be aware of this situation and, if necessary, give itself a margin to verify in ten months or so whether the security situation has improved so as to allow the organization of elections in safe and transparent conditions. If this is not possible, I think that ECOWAS should be able to draw the consequences and possibly extend the transition.
But fundamentally, it seems to me that ECOWAS should not simply be interested in the political aspects. It must also be involved in securing the territory. On this point, there are no clear indications from ECOWAS bodies to date that, as a regional organization, it is really involved militarily in the search for peace and security in Burkina Faso, as it did in Liberia and Sierra Leone. If this does not happen, it will be difficult to demand that the military organize elections in sixteen months.
Is Captain Traore’s young age and his rank a handicap for him in the conduct of State’s affairs in Burkina Faso?
This is not the first time in Burkina that captains have seized power. But the context is also different. I fact, here, we are in a context where these soldiers will have to return to the ranks in 16 months, whereas in the days of Captains Blaise Compaore and Thomas Sankara, we were in a context where when you take power, you keep it. This is really a big difference between these two generations.
Since Captain Traore says he is only interested in the military, I imagine that his fundamental concern at the moment is to do everything possible to ensure the protection of the territorial integrity of Burkina and its population. After 16 months, he will still continue to serve the army and his country. But I do not see a future for him (as president) beyond the transition period, however long it may be.
ODL/te/fss/abj/APA