The military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea have agreed to two-year transitions after a tough bargaining spree with the Economic Community of West African States.
ECOWAS realises that it could not afford to be seen as weak-kneed or cowering before putschists in the region.
At a time when some are calling for reforms to the regional institution, since 2020 Ecowas has been working hard to put an end to West Africa’s epidemic of coups, five in all, in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea within two years.
The current occupant of the rotating chairmanship of the regional institution, President Umaro Sissoco Embalo of Guinea-Bissau, who himself was nearly overthrown in an attempted coup last February, floated the idea of an “anti-coup force” five months later while in Paris, France.
But he did not reveal the concrete details of the scheme.
However, Ecowas succeeded in imposing a two-year timetable on the military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea.
The strongman in Conakry bought a lot of time before giving in to the 24-month timetable prescribed by the regional grouping.
In Mali, where President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was ousted in August 2020 by a group of soldiers led by Colonel Assimi Goita, the transitional authorities had presented a five-year timetable, prompting indignation from Ecowas, which imposed an embargo on Bamako between January and July 2022.
The Malian government was then forced to reverse its decision, as Colonel Goita signed a decree in June to set the duration of the transition at 24 months, “starting on March 26, 2022,” with the prospect of organizing elections in February 2024.
Are coupists keeping their word?
Visiting Bamako in mid-October, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland noted that the Malian authorities are keeping their promises to hold presidential and legislative elections on time.
“I will repeat what I said in Mali, that so far, as far as we have been able to ascertain, the Malian interim government is keeping its commitment to the agreed timetable for elections in 2024,” the U.S. diplomat said.
In Burkina, a Sahelian country like Mali that has been rocked by jihadist violence, Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba led the January 2022 commando force that overthrew civilian President Roch Marc Christian Kabore.
Although he had agreed with Ecowas to lead a “reasonable transition of 24 months from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2024,” Mr. Damiba was to remain head of the Burkinabe junta for only eight months.
However eight months after his takeover, Damiba was himself the victim of a coup led by 34-year-old Captain Ibrahim Traora.
Damiba was forced him to resign on Sunday, October 2, before seeking refuge in Lome, Togo.
As soon as he took power, the young Burkinabe captain committed himself to respecting the duration of the transition agreed with Ecowas by his predecessor.
After being designated head of state at a national conference held from October 14 to 15 in the capital Ouagadougou, Captain Traore signed a 21-month transition timetable, “starting on October 2, 2022.”
He is thus fulfilling his commitment to return civilians to power in July 2024, after the holding of a presidential election.
Threatened with sanctions by the current Chairman of Ecowas, Guinea took some time to fall into line.
However, the junta that has ruled the country since the September 5, 2021 coup ousted President Alpha Conde has agreed to return power to civilians after two years instead of the oringal three-year transition.
“In a dynamic compromise, experts from Ecowas and Guinea have jointly developed a consolidated timetable for the transition spread over 24 months,” the regional organization said in a statement in October.
Security, another challenge for ECOWAS
However, the head of the Guinean junta, Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya, said the timetable would come into effect on January 1, 2023, a little more than two years after he took power.
Ecowas has not validated this unilateral decision by Conakry.
The timetable should be presented to the next summit of the regional organization, scheduled before the end of the year, for its approval ECOWAS says.
Called a guild for regional leaders by some sections of West African public opinion, Ecowas has been urged to reform itself, to better reflect the aspirations of its people, especially from a security perspective.
In fact, the geopolitical context in the region is marked by the rise of disparate jihadist groups and hotly opposed attempts to tinker with national constitutions, the objective of which is to allow the outgoing presidents to cling onto power.
According to observers, these situations can be blamed for the rash of coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea in the last two years.
“Fundamentally, it seems to me that Ecowas should not simply be interested in the political look of things but it must also be involved in securing territory. On this point, there are no clear indications from the bodies of Ecowas to date, that, as a regional organization, it is really involved militarily in the search for peace and security in Burkina Faso, as it did in Liberia and Sierra Leone” says regional specialist Ibrahima Kane.
”If this is not done, it will now be difficult to demand that the military organize elections within “reasonable timeframes for the return of civilians to power in their respective countries” he tells APA.
ODL/te/fss/as/APA