APA – Kigali (Rwanda) – Major parts across the Great Horn Africa are expected to experience these wetter conditions including Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania, according to weather predictions seen by APA Thursday.
Predictions released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) indicate that the highest probabilities for wetter than usual conditions are indicated in central to western Kenya and in the cross-border areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda.
The expected enhanced rainfall is likely to positively impact agriculture, water resources, and overall livelihoods, it said.
An early to normal rainfall onset is expected in several parts of the region. These include parts of northern Tanzania, eastern Rwanda, southern and western Uganda, western Kenya, south-western Somalia, and parts of south-central Ethiopia.
“From March to May, there is an elevated risk of flooding in areas prone to floods (…) the forecast underscores the urgency for coordinated action and preparedness, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to mitigate potential impacts and capitalize on the opportunities presented by the forecast rainfall,” said Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC director.
According to him. it is important to remember the multiple challenges faced by the region, including the historic 2020-2022 drought, conflict in various parts of the region such as Sudan, and the El Nino-induced floods at the end of 2023.
“This has weakened communities’ coping capacity, making them highly susceptible to food insecurity. The likelihood of flooding during the 2024 MAM season in parts of the region could lead to a deterioration in food security in localised areas,” Dr Artan said.
Weather predictions indicate that probabilities for warmer than normal temperatures are most enhanced over Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and southern parts of Tanzania.
In line with the World Meteorological Organization’s guidelines and recommendations, ICPAC has adopted an objective seasonal forecast method to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa, it said.
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