The ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has been dominating the country’s political landscape since the country gained independence from Britain in 1966. In fact, the country’s elections have for the greater part of its post-independence history literary been a one-party show.
The first major test of the BDP’s dominance was during the last elections held in 2014 when the main opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) made some inroads into the ruling party’s strongholds.
While the ruling party remains resilient, the launch of its splinter party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), is presenting a new challenge ahead of general elections scheduled for October.
BPF is emerging as game-changer in Botswana politics because it has the support of former president Ian Khama who is still an influential figure across the country despite the fact that he has resigned from the BDP.
Khama is patron of the BFP.
In the last general elections, the ruling party obtained 47 percent and think the ruling party’s popular vote could drop even further during this year’s polls.
The question that arises is whether the arrival of a new kid on the opposition landscape will change fortunes of opposition politics for bad or worse.
Recently Khama announced that he would support independent and opposition candidates as part of his plans to remove from power the party that his father founded more than five decades ago.
While the UDC has been shying away from endorsing Khama’s proposal, the former president has made it clear that he would use his popularity to rally behind the UDC.
Social commentator and political analyst, Adam Phetlhe is of the view that Khama is a very influential figure in the body politic of Botswana who could be an added advantage to political parties across the board.
“…And that is why before he fell out with his erstwhile political party and its current leader, he was suggested to be the chief campaigner of the BDP in this year’s general election. Some BDP members acknowledge that they will struggle to mount a solid campaign without Lt Gen Khama,” said Phetlhe.
UDC has been reluctant to officially endorse Khama as one of its chief campaigners because of his alleged chequered past while he was in office.
The BPF was established recently after the fallout between Khama and Masisi.
“The UDC will be foolhardy and suicidal to reject Lt Gen Khama’s overtures because of his past (alleged corruption, dictatorship etc). Politics, like war, has shown that there are casualties of one form or the other perpetuated by the influence of the leader.
But in an election year like this one, all else is not considered until perhaps post facto. One leader departs with casualties while the incoming does the same during and when he departs,” said Phetlhe.
Former University of Botswana political scientist Professor Zibani Maundeni had to this say about the upcoming elections
“We have actually seen the ruling party splitting. That happens in a strong democracy, it shows we are growing, new voices are putting pressure on government, and this time, who knows, things may happen.”
BPF leader Biggie Butale believes together with the support of other opposition parties they can remove the BDP from power.
The BPF was formed by former BDP members who were either kicked out of the party months ago for not supporting Masisi.
UDC leader Duma Boko said BPF as an opposition party is open to engage in any opposition coalition noting that at the moment UDC is not in competition with Ian Khama who is the BPF Patron as well.
According to Boko, UDC’s main arch-rival is BDP; hence there is no way UDC cannot be welcoming BPF based on the delusion that UDC might hate it because it is associated with Khama.
“Our war is with BDP which we want to wrestle power from in October. For now Khama is the least to our concerns, why would we hate him while he is no longer in the BDP. We used to attack him while he was the president and for now it is gone, we focusing on Masisi now,” he said.
BDP’s women’s wing chairperson accused Khama of using chieftainship for political mileage.
Speaking during a media briefing, Makgato accused Khama, who is the Paramount Chief of one of the largest and influential tribes in the country, Bangwato, of deliberately creating fear among voters by calling political meetings under the pretence of chieftainship.
She vowed that the BDP will deal with him in the context of politics, and not as a tribal leader.
KO/jn/APA