In Mali, the wave of protest calling for the departure of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta has resulted from the breakdown of his regime, Bamako-based researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Boubacar Sangaré suggests on Monday.
A collective of civil society, clerics and the political opposition have been demonstrating this month to demand the resignation of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (IBK). Why is that?
First of all, it should be pointed out that the protest movement took the name of June 5 Movement – Rally of Patriotic Forces after the first mobilisation on the same date. It is a heterogeneous coalition which initially brought together the Front for the Safeguard of Democracy (FSD), bringing together political parties opposed to President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, the Coordination of Movements, Associations and Sympathizers of Imam Mahmoud Dicko (CMAS) and Espoir Mali Kura (EMK), led by a former minister in the 2000s and a figure from the far left African Solidarity for Democracy and Independence (SADI) party.
These protests, and the great mobilisation they bring about, are taking place in a context marked by the continuing deterioration of the security situation linked to the actions of violent extremist groups, local conflicts and transnational organised crime.
To this must be added the precarious situation of the population, the health crisis linked to the coronavirus and its effects on the population, as well as the post-electoral crisis marked by the contestation of the last legislative elections results in Bamako and some regional capitals. It is this explosive cocktail that has served as a catalyst for the current protest action, the main watchword of which, namely the resignation of the president and his regime, is a reminder of how vulnerable the institutions are and how they reflect a certain exhaustion of the regime’s legitimacy.
Among the leaders of the protest, Imam Mahmoud Dicko stands out. Where does he draw his strength and legitimacy from?
It is important to remember that Imam Mahmoud Dicko is one of the figures in the religious sphere who have distinguished themselves by their partisan positioning, especially during the 2013 presidential election where he supported candidate Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta.
If the fact that he withdrew his support for President Keïta in 2018 weakened him, he was able to revitalise this political position by surfing on societal issues such as homosexuality, comprehensive sex education as well as tragic events such as the massacre of civilians by alleged ethnic militias, which allowed him to mobilise notably on April 5, 2019 when calls for the then Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga resignation emerged.
After his departure as head of the Islamic High Council, he created the Coordination of Movements, Associations and Sympathizers in September 2019, a politico-religious movement through which he organised meetings to express himself on societal and political issues. Imam Dicko embodies a demanding Islam, looking at social life and defending positions. This has enabled him to gain a great deal of influence, in addition to the clarity of his highly partisan discourse.
Finally, he is also someone who embodies a Muslim civil society that seems to have discovered its strengths and is emerging from the ashes of a secular civil society deemed to be subservient to power.
Thousands of Malians responded to the call for protest. What meaning can be given to this massive mobilisation in the current Malian context?
The current protest, through mobilisations based on the use of the streets, reflects the gravity of the situation in Mali and can be analysed as an expression of the real frustrations of the populations.
Over the years, Malians have been deprived of any means of democratic expression of their discontent outside of street demonstrations. From this point of view, the National Assembly bears an immense responsibility for the current crisis in the country.
The Malians who are protesting do not actually go out for this or that political leader within the M5 – RFP. They no longer have confidence in this political class, which has constantly demonstrated its incoherence over the last few decades. Among the actors who are currently leading the protest, some supported IBK’s candidacy in 2013 and others did it again in 2018. This anger is not religious either, even if the figurehead of the sling is undoubtedly Imam Mahmoud Dicko.
President IBK says he is open to dialogue. He has, moreover, increased the number of meetings along these lines. Can this approach defuse the tension?
The dialogue proposed by the president can save time, calm the situation in the immediate future and manage the economic situation. But it is clear that only real efforts to take into account the frustrations of the people and to find solutions can help to address the crisis in the long term. What is being expressed through the current dispute is the aspiration for a better State.
The Head of State is proposing the formation of a government of national unity. How is such an idea received in Mali?
The proposal for an open government is not new and seems to have been overused.
As a reminder, former President Alpha Oumar Konaré was forced to install a government coalition in 1992-1993 with opposition parties which thus traded their capacity for nuisance.
After him, President Amadou Toumani Touré also experimented with a form of consensual management of power that allowed him to maintain what some have called “peripheral clientelism” of the parties that deserted the opposition and which took the form of an agreement between the elites to annihilate protest resurgences.
If the political field remained fragmented under President Keïta, it must be said that there has been a recomposition since his re-election and the signing of the Political Governance Agreement (PGA) which allowed the formation of an open government.
There has been a somewhat opportunistic rallying to power of opponents who have long been kept away from the redistribution circuits and are returning for the sharing of resources (“national cake”). A government of national unity for the sharing of power, and therefore of resources, as is the case in the neo-patrimonial political field such as that of Mali, may eventually gain the support of the leaders of the protest, but it is clear that the demonstrators have other expectations related to their daily lives.
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