Economic growth in Morocco is expected to stand at 3.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020, instead of 2.5 percent for the same period a year earlier, says the High Commission for Planning (HCP), a Moroccan institution specializing in statistics.
According to HCP, this development is due to the 2.8 percent increase in non-agricultural value added, noting that overall, growth outside agriculture would be driven by tertiary activities, the pace of which would amount to 3,3 percent, instead of 2.3 percent for the secondary sector.
Agricultural value added should increase by 6.8 percent, year-on-year on the assumption of the return of rainfall favorably distributed over the agricultural regions, in particular between February and March 2020.
The current farming season is expected to benefit from a technical adjustment of sown lands; in particular those devoted to cereals, legumes and fodder, but would be characterized by the decline in certain fall crops, such as citrus fruits.
The economic outlook also highlights domestic demand, which maintains its upward trend, thanks to household consumption that would go up at a relatively more rapid pace than in the previous quarter, driven by the anticipated improvement in the supply of primary products, in a context of continued moderation in inflationary pressures and a slight increase in household incomes.
In the first quarter of 2020, the international context would be less penalizing for the national economy than in the previous quarter. With fears of global recession fading and easing of trade tensions between China and the United States, world trade is expected to gain some momentum, but global growth would remain sluggish and move below its long-term trend.
According to HCP, world inflation is estimated at 2 percent, taking into account oil price forecasts, which will approach US$ 60/barrel. Under these conditions, global demand made to Morocco would benefit from a slight upsurge of imports from the euro zone and a 1.3-percent increase, year on year.
HA/fss/abj/APA