Morocco’s budget deficit is expected to reach nearly 3.9% of GDP in 2025, against an estimated 3.5% for 2024, according to projections by the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
The Moroccan economy is reported to have grown by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, year-on-year, after +4.3% in the third quarter. However, the budget deficit is projected at 3.9% of GDP in 2025.
In its report on the 2025 provisional economic budget, the High Commission for Planning (HCP) estimates that this development reflects faster growth in overall expenditure compared to ordinary revenue.
Ordinary revenues are expected to continue to strengthen in 2025, supported by an increase in tax revenues (+7.5%) and non-tax revenues (+5.6%).
Tax revenues are expected to reach 19.8% of GDP in 2025, driven by the consolidation of direct taxes (8.8% of GDP) and indirect taxes (8.4% of GDP).
Non-tax revenues, benefiting from innovative financing mechanisms and income from public establishments, are expected to stabilize at 4.4% of GDP in 2024 and 2025.
Overall expenditure would increase to reach 28.8% of GDP in 2025, compared to 28.2% in 2024.
Ordinary expenditure would represent 21.9% of GDP in 2025, due in particular to the increase in expenditure on goods and services (18.1% of GDP) and personnel expenditure (11.1% of GDP).
Transfers and subsidies to the social sectors would also contribute to this increase.
In addition, compensation expenditures are expected to decrease to 1.1% of GDP, in line with the decline in commodity prices and the continuation of the partial decompensation of butane gas.
Investment expenditure, reaching 6.9% of GDP in 2025, reflects the state’s commitment to supporting economic activity through a sustained effort of public investment.
SL/te/sf/lb/as/APA