Nigerien voters went to the polls on December 27 to choose a successor to President Mahamadou Issoufou, but both men are poised to face different scrutinies.
In an exclusive interview with Apanews, Tatiana Smirnova, an Associate Researcher at the Sahel Research Group (University of Florida) and a Niger specialist takes stock of the outgoing president’s two five-year terms and outlines the challenges awaiting his successor.
Excerpts
President Mahamadou Issoufou is preparing to step down from power in Niger. What legacy does he leave?
The first thing to do is to put President Mahamadou Issoufou’s two terms from the perspective of Nigerien politics in the long term.
After decades of struggle in the opposition before coming to power for the first time in 2011, Issoufou’s project was to completely rebuild the country’s socio-economic landscape through the two components of the “Renaissance” Program.
Despite acute security and budgetary allocation problems to the defense and security sector, which account for about 17 percent of the state budget, and with unfavorable prices for raw materials, several achievements have been recorded.
Niger shows significantly higher economic growth, compared to that achieved by Issoufou;s predecessors.
The building of new infrastructure in urban centers and especially in the city of Niamey– a new airport, interchanges, bridges, hotels– is the most visible and spectacular aspect of these achievements.
But there was also a great deal of despair, caused by the failure to build the Niamey-Cotonou railway and the power plant on the Kandadji dam.
The national road network has been strengthened, albeit insufficiently. Besides, there are virtually no major highways connecting the urban centers to the outskirts of those cities.
For example, the road linking Nguigmi to Ngourti is almost nonexistent. The Initiative dubbed “Nigeriens Feed Nigeriens”, launched in 2011 to break with the logic of continued foreign assistance, has shown its limits and underscored the need to revitalize agriculture differently.
Another important aspect is the development of the educational system.
Efforts have been made with the recruitment of contract teachers and the construction of new schools, but the success rate for the Brevet and Baccalaureate exams is still very low.
New public universities have been created in Agadez, Dosso, Maradi, Zinder, Tahoua, Diffa and Tillabery, but the main challenge remains the quality and content of teaching that would meet job market requirements.
In terms of the development of health services, two national referral hospitals have been built as well as other health infrastructure, yet rural areas still largely lack Integrated health centers and maternity hospitals.
Mahamadou Issoufou’s two terms in office also leave the legacy of the exploitation of the Agadem bloc.
Oil revenues are high stakes for Niger, as they could represent up to 24 percent of GDP after the commissioning of the Niger-Benin pipeline.
The issue of the equitable and effective distribution of oil revenues thus arises inevitably at the municipal, regional and national levels (as was the case for uranium) and could generate additional political and social tensions to handle.
In terms of foreign policy, Niger has undoubtedly reached another level on the regional and international scenes occupying a seat as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for the period 2020-2021.
It has also hosted a summit of the African Union in July 2019.
The security crisis has undoubtedly played a crucial role, giving importance to Niger as a relatively stable country, compared to others in the sub-region.
Overall, despite the challenges posed by insecurity, the legacy left by President Mahamadou Issoufou rests on new socio-economic and foreign policy dynamics.
Issoufou has decided not to run for a third presidential term, to abide by his country’s constitution, unlike Alassane Ouattara of Cote d’Ivoire and Alpha Conde of Guinea. Does this decision necessarily make him a paragon of democracy for his country and for Africa?
President Issoufou served two terms, the maximum authorized by Article 47 of the constitution, and is therefore not seeking re-election.
This decision is honorable for a country which has already experienced four coups (1974, 1996, 1999 and 2010) and several failed attempts.
It will be the first time in Niger that an elected head of state steps down from power at the end of his term.
While this decision attests to great political maturity, it seems to me that it is still too early to speak of Niger as a model of democracy on the continent. The tradition of the peaceful transfer of power must be sustainable, which is not obvious. The current elections are taking place in a context of extreme tensions, with a strong involvement of army officers turned politicians. These tensions could have a significant impact on the stability of republican institutions during the term of the next president.
Read also: Niger Election: “We Believe in Regime Change” (Opposition)
In socio-economic terms, have Nigeriens lived better under his rule than under previous regimes?
We cannot compare the lifestyles of the populations under the terms of President Mahamadou Issoufou with the previous regimes, firstly because this decade has coincided with an unprecedented security and global health crisis.
Secondly, insecurity has profoundly disrupted the local socio-economic microcosm in the peripheral areas of Niger, with displaced populations still mired in a humanitarian emergency.
Thirdly, the situation has created great pressure on natural resources throughout the country, which has contributed to exacerbating local conflicts exploited by the insurgents. And finally, like everywhere in the world, the Covid-19 pandemic has also taken a heavy toll on the Nigerien economy, due to increased spending on health.
Like other countries of the Sahel, Niger is not immune from jihadist violence. What is Issoufou’s record on security matters?
It should be noted that despite the spectacular deterioration of the security situation in neighboring countries, Niger still seems to resist the lasting establishment of armed groups on its territory. Overall this is a positive point. However, as has already been pointed out by many analysts, the insurgents continue to intelligently exploit local conflicts and frustrations to establish their foothold in rural areas affected by instability, especially in the Tillabery and Diffa regions. This raises the issue of the subsequent spread of instability, not only to the urban areas of Niamey, but also in Maradi and the town bordering Nigeria.
The intensification of attacks since the end of 2019 and the huge losses incurred by the Nigerien armed forces also indicate that security policies are not effective.
This raises the issue of the need to reconsider the very foundations of an approach to the “anti-terrorism” struggle. In addition, another important challenge to be taken up deals with the ethics of management of security policy in Niger.
The frustrations within the military are significant. They are not yet very visible, but their consequences can be dramatic for the country in the long term.
Mohamed Bazoum, the candidate the ruling party is designated as the favorite in this presidential election. But will the support of Hama Amadou (opposition), who is excluded from the race, for Mahamane Ousmane not compromise his chances to succeed his friend Issoufou?
Yes, this support can theoretically compromise the chances of Mohamed Bazoum, the candidate of PNDS-Tarayya, of winning the presidential election. Mahamane Ousmane is likely to give to the opposition, the votes of Zinder, one of the most populous regions in Niger.
In this case, out of eight regions (Niamey, Dosso, Tillabery, Tahoua, Agadez, Maradi, Zinder, Diffa), at least four could vote for the opposition, since three of them (Niamey, Dosso and Tillabery) had voted for Hama Amadou in 2016, adding to the region of Zinder, Mahamane Ousmane’s stronghold.
The configuration of this support is also problematic for the legislative election results, with a possible risk of “co-habitation” in the event that the parliamentary majority is impacted by the opposition.
Strong political tensions will help weaken the functioning of these institutions, as was already the case in Niger in 1995, leading to a military coup.
Read also: Mohamed Bazoum: “My rivals have lost the argument”
What will be the challenges of the next Nigerien head of state?
I think the main challenges of the future president will be revolving around the security of Nigeriens and reforms to revive the economy all against the backdrop of galloping demography and managing the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.
First, because of its geostrategic position, Niger has the potential for regional leadership in managing the security crisis in the Sahel.
The outgoing president has played this diplomatic card by positioning himself as an important interlocutor of international partners. However, the long duration of engagement in the conflict points to deep structural flaws in today’s security strategy that should probably be revisited at the regional level, while negotiating a strong leeway with international actors. This will be one of the main challenges for the next head of state.
Then, it is the populations in rural areas who are directly affected by regional instability. The insurgency is grafted onto the complex combination of several factors linked, in particular to local conflicts for power, to the perceived inequitable distribution of resources, but also to the direct and indirect effects of military operations carried out by the army.
The issue of protecting civilians in rural areas will also be a major challenge for the incoming government. This aspect is also linked to the decentralization process that must continue to be carried out in order to establish the presence of the state in rural areas.
The challenge for the new head of state will thus be to find investors for the necessary socio-economic reforms.
ODL/los/cgd/fss/abj/as/APA