OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2023 sees global oil demand at 116 mb/d in 2045

APA – Lagos (Nigeria)
The 2023 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO), which was launched on Monday at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has put oil demand at 116 mb/d in 2045.
First published in 2007, the WOO offers a detailed review and assessment of the medium- and long-term prospects for the global oil and energy to 2045.
Speaking at the event, OPEC Secretary General, HE Haitham Al Ghais, said it was a great privilege to launch the publication in the presence of HRH Prince Abdul Aziz Bin Salman and thanked Fahad Alajlan, President of KAPSARC, and his dedicated staff, for supporting with preparations for such an important OPEC event.
Al Ghais highlighted that the WOO 2023 provides a data-driven, fact-based outlook that emphasizes the realities we see before us. “The upshot is there is no credible way to address all the challenges before us without utilizing all available energy sources, all relevant technologies, and with energy market stability as a cornerstone for the huge investments required.”
“The WOO 2023 launch represents the culmination of many months of modelling, writing, review and production. It should be viewed as an insightful reference tool, one that underscores OPEC’s commitment to dialogue, knowledge-sharing and data transparency,” Al Ghais added.
According to the Executive Summary of the WOO 2023, the average global economic growth is seen at 3% p.a. over the long-term Global economic growth is expected to average 3% per annum (p.a.) over the forecast period.
Thus, over the entire outlook, global GDP is set to almost double from $138 trillion in 2022 to $270 trillion in 2045 (on a 2017 PPP basis). With average long-term growth of 6.1% p.a., India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major developing country. China and India alone are set to account for more than a third of the global economy in 2045.
It stated that global primary energy demand is set to increase from around 291 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2022 to close to 359 mboe/d in 2045, an increase of 68.3 mboe/d, or 23% over the outlook period.
Growth is expected to slow gradually from the relatively high short-term rates to more modest long-term increments, in line with moderating population and economic growth.
Energy demand growth will be driven by the non-OECD region, which is set to increase by 69 mboe/d over the outlook period. Around 28% of nonOECD growth is expected to come from India alone. At the same time, energy demand in OECD countries is set to marginally decline in the outlook period.
Wind and solar grow at the fastest rate; oil retains the largest share in the energy mix. Demand for all primary fuels is set to increase in the long-term, with the exception of coal due to energy policy and climate commitments. The strongest growth is expected for other renewables (notably wind and solar), which will increase by 34.3 mboe/d, based on strong policy support in many regions.
The share of other renewables in the energy mix is set to rise from around 2.7% in 2022 to 11.7% in 2045. Oil demand will grow strongly too, and even though its share in the energy mix declines modestly, oil will remain the fuel with the largest share by 2045 at 29.5%.
Natural gas demand is set to increase by 20 mboe/d over the outlook period, reaching 87 mboe/d in 2045.
The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix will drop from above 80% in 2022 to about 69% in 2045, due to the decline of coal. In the same period, the combined share of oil and gas in the energy mix still represents 54% in 2045.
Oil demand shows strong medium-term growth; long-term oil demand rises to 116 mb/d by 2045 Global oil demand is set to reach a level of 110.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2028, representing an increase of 10.6 mb/d compared to 2022.
Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by a robust 10.1 mb/d, reaching a level of 63.7 mb/d by 2028. OECD demand will also increase by 0.5 mb/d over the medium-term.
GIK/APA