The formation of coalition governments or governments of national unity (GNUs) has become a recurring theme in Southern Africa, often driven by political necessity.
The region has over the past two decades witnessed at least three coalition governments or GNUs established following disputed polls, as in the case of Zimbabwe in 2008 and Malawi in 2020, or inconclusive election outcomes as recently occurred in South Africa in May 2024.
After losing its parliamentary majority in the May 29 elections, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress has hastily assembled a posse of 11 political parties, all ostensibly working towards addressing some of the challenges faced by South Africa such as corruption, rising crime and a deteriorating economy.
However, as political analyst Donald Porusingazi notes, as South Africa embarks on its own GNU, it is essential to learn from the experiences of neighbouring countries because the concept of coalition governments has been both a remedy and a challenge across the region.
“While these arrangements aim to foster stability, inclusivity and shared governance, history has shown that GNUs can be both promising and precarious,” Porusingazi says.
He adds: “As South Africa embarks on its own GNU, it’s essential to examine the pitfalls and potential solutions based on experiences from neighbouring countries.”
In Malawi, the Tonse Alliance emerged as a formidable force in 2020 against the then ruling Democratic Progressive Party led by Peter Mutharika.
Late vice president Saulos Klaus Chilima, who died in a plane crash in June, played a pivotal role.
The alliance between President Lazarus Chakwera’s Malawi Congress Party (MCP), Chilima’s United Transformation Movement (UTM) and seven other political parties had a clear mission: unseat Mutharika and bring about change.
However, the lack of detailed guidelines for integrating nine party manifestos proved problematic as the haste to form a new government blinded the coalition partners to potential pitfalls.
At the time, political analysts had labelled the alliance between the MCP and UTM as “strange bedfellows.”
The analysts were right as cracks began to emerge within the alliance once the dust had settled.
Three other members of the alliance – Alliance for Democracy, People’s Transformation and People’s Progressive Movement – left the coalition in the past few year, citing corruption and unmet promises.
The lack of legal backing exacerbated their plight. The secretive Tonse Alliance agreement, known only to Chakwera and Chilima, concealed critical details.
According to reports, one such condition was rotational presidency, positioning Chilima as the next candidate in the 2025 polls. Tragically, Chilima’s untimely left the alliance reeling, with secrets buried alongside him.
MCP’s disregard for other manifestos and unilateral decision-making further strained relations.
“GNUs can be transformative, but they demand transparency, shared vision and legal frameworks,” Porusingazi adds.
Relations between Chakwera and Chilima became strained as time went by, resulting in the latter being arrested for alleged corruption in November 2022 and having some of his powers clipped in a cabinet reshuffle.
The corruption charges were dropped in May this year, a few weeks before he met his untimely death.
Zimbabwe’s GNU between former president Robert Mugabe’s ZANU PF and the then main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) of the late Morgan Tsvangirai presents another case study of an unsustainable senior partner-junior partner political relationship.
ZANU PF controlled all the levers of power while the MDC was allocated not-so-important cabinet portfolios, save for the key ministry of finance as Mugabe sought to use the opposition party’s cleaner international standing to attract resources to the country.
The global gaze is on South Africa as embarks on its own GNU journey, hoping that this time, the lessons learned will lead to lasting solutions.
However, as Porusingazi warns, the stakes may be higher in South Africa than they were in Malawi (and Zimbabwe before it) due to the large number of political parties involved in the so-called Rainbow Nation.
“While rainbows are colourful and beautiful to behold, they also demand careful calibration of the differently coloured lines in order for the spectacle to be something that holds and is attractive.”
JN/APA