APA-Johannesburg (South Africa) Russia’s mercenary group Wagner has been at the heart of a politico-military maelstrom in recent days for all the wrong reasons, which for Africa may come unstuck.
From being regarded as shadowy and even creepy in the best of times, its mercenaries have earned themselves a new notoriety thanks to a crisis with a Vladimir Putin-led regime in Moscow which at some point was starring in the face of a coup by the paramilitary organisation whose men briefly marched on the capital.
Their apparent invasion of Moscow which would have led to bloodshed was eventually averted thanks to negotiations by neighbouring Belarus.
Made up of hardened and motivated Russian ex-convicts, Wagner’s soldiers of fortune are the obverse of the average demoralised frontline units of the regular army battling the defenders of Ukraine for the past 16 months.
Wagner’s tzar Yevgeny Prigozhin was the staunchest of Putin allies in the ‘military operation’ in Ukraine but all this has been turned on its head overnight.
Enmeshing himself and Wagner in a politico-security crisis will cause the ensuing reverberations to be felt far beyond Moscow.
Events surrounding the private paramilitary organisation may have happened thousands of miles away but Africa could be left picking up the pieces from what is left of the fallout.
The stakes could never be higher for a number of countries in Africa where Wagner’s presence is much more than of a cosmetic essence to the shaky security structures which the Russian mercenaries are reportedly contracted to hold together.
That some of those countries still maintain a semblance of normality despite sporadic hints of insecurity has been rightly or wrongly to the credit of Wagner.
Its mercenaries have applied heavy-handedness to their ruthlessly efficient streak in the theatres of operation around Africa to which they have been called to intervene.
Wagner operatives have been fingered in reported incidences of rape, torture, robbery and killing of non-combatants in Mali for example.
Other less specified atrocities in other African countries where regimes enlisted their help have also been blamed on them.
Wagner’s Africa profile
Until recently information on the presence of Russian military contractors in Africa has been at best sketchy, most times speculative and therefore unreliable.
Although much of the speculative details about Wagner in Africa are dished out with doses of known unknowns, its shadowy presence on the continent has not dispelled suspicion about its ultimate intentions even if some Africans in Burkina Faso, Mali and Libya welcome them with open arms as ‘comrades’ in their struggle to liberate themselves from the ‘fangs of neocolonialism’.
In recent months, demonstrations have even been staged in a number of African countries where these battlefield contractors were cheered as friends while traditional allies in the West were jeered with spite and contempt fuelled by suspicion which has been simmering for a long time.
Admixture of hard and soft power
Like a hard shell providing protection to its soft interior, deliberately making it less obvious Wagner represents Russia’s other power game globally which complements its diplomatic overreach.
Built with the help of the Russian state to aid its plausible deniability theory as a blanket cover for her underhandedness in awkward situations abroad, Wagner had occupied pride of place in Moscow’s ‘game of thrones’ with the world where it can influence the outcomes of conflicts, win international proteges and forge partnerships around vested interests.
This hard power is deployed to lend weight to Moscow’s soft diplomatic leverage which is in fierce competition with the Western hegemonic colossus and China’s global economic clout.
July’s Russia-Africa summit will highlight just how important and relevant this combination of hard and soft power has become to Moscow under Putin who is being driven more and more into international isolation by the Ukraine conflict.
Wagner was named as a participant in conflicts in the Central African Republic, Mali, Libya and Syria, literally acting as ‘Russian boots on the ground’ fighting alongside forces aligned with Putin’s Moscow.
Despite flat-floor denials from the junta in Ouagadougou, Western nations have repeatedly claimed that Wagner mercenaries have been casting more than shadowy silhouettes over the conflict.
They were apparently drafted in to reverse the battlefield fortunes of the Burkina armed forces who have been overwhelmed by the seemingly incessant scorch earth campaign by jihadists.
Close to a few thousand Wagner mercenaries are operating in West Africa, according to some intelligence but their numbers could see a dramatic drawdown given the stalled fortunes of the Russian military machine bogged down in Ukraine.
The future of the mercenaries in Africa or the nature of their presence in the continent will very much depend on what becomes of their parent organisation now that their leader is almost certain to be banished to Belarus after being forgiven as part of the deal to end his armed insurrection against Putin.
Analysts say several scenarios could play out simultaneously but what is certain remains that Wagner’s modus operandi as a private fighting army may never be the same again.
Its leadership may soon be disbanded, its fighters incorporated into the Russian regular army and its remits tailored to suit the whims of Mr Putin after emerging from the Wagner-inspired crisis unscathed but noticeably weakened.
In that case could Africa witness a gradual drawdown of Wagner operational forces on its soil to help the Russian war effort in Ukraine?
While some observers say it could be anybody’s wild guess, there may be a strong chance of this happening especially if the ‘military operation’ in Ukraine continue to hit a snag.
A further prolongation of the conflict will almost certainly underline the growing importance of the contribution of Wagner forces in Ukraine where they had enjoyed some spectacular successes unlike the average Russian combat units who have been desperately short of morale to prosecute a long-term campaign against the motivated defenders.
However, others will argue that the strength of the Wagner operatives rests on the fact that they are free from the shackles bogging down the Russian army which is beset by corruption, bureaucratic snafu, and ill-thought battle strategies.
Absorbing Wagner fighters into the main Russian military machine could neutralise them as the effective fighting force they have been in Ukraine thus far.
For many African countries especially those south of the Sahara, security has become an all-important currency with which to buy political stability, facilitate economic investment, and realise longer term development aspirations.
For Moscow, an injection of the Wagner factor in Ukraine could be decisive in saving its blushes on the battlefield where the defenders have more than held their own against a far superior fighting force.
The July summit could not be approaching sooner enough to strike an agreeable balance between these two interests epitomised by a jihadist-infested Africa on the one hand, and a militarily beleaguered Moscow on the other.
WN/as/APA