A French troop pull-out from Mali is on the cards, says Sciences Po Paris Professor and Advisor at the Brussels International Center, Kader A. Abderrahim who decrypts for APA the implications of expelling France’s ambassador, Joël Meyer from Bamako.
Interview by Lemine Ould M. Salem
Was the decision to expel the French ambassador predictable?
KAA: Unfortunately, yes. In recent weeks tension has been rising between the two countries. The comments made by Jean-Yves Le Drian and Florence Parly at the end of last week did not help to ease the pressure.
The withdrawal announced last Thursday of the Danish troops present as part of the European Takuba task force, which supports the French army in the fight against jihadist groups in Mali and the Sahel, after an admonition from the Malian government, marked the climax.
In this situation, it seems to me that Mali is isolating itself diplomatically and that France is weakened in what it considers to be its natural base.
What could be France’s response?
KAA: France could take a similar decision. However, I don’t think it will do so in order to underline its desire to maintain a minimum of ties between the two countries.
On the other hand, the departure of French troops may be an option. France is in a pre-campaign situation ahead of a presidential election scheduled for April 2022. President Emmanuel Macron will undoubtedly make a decision based on the upcoming election and whether or not it is in France’s interest to remain in Mali. His influence and role in Africa are thus called into question. He must learn from this.
Is a definitive withdrawal of French troops possible?
KAA: This is naturally what the protagonists of this diplomatic stand-off have in mind.
Could Paris and Bamako have avoided reaching this level of tension?
KAA: Each of the two protagonists could have avoided this stand-off.
It seems to me that the Malian authorities are slow to explain their project and their intentions, at least to their compatriots. Here there is a feeling of oversight, without a real political project. At the regional level, there is an ongoing geopolitical reconfiguration.
It is legitimate for Mali to seek to establish new alliances or partnerships to preserve its interests.
As for France, old reflexes and the feeling of being in its comfort zone have not allowed it to see the evolutions for what they truly are at the geopolitical landscape.
LOS/lb/as/APA