The peace deal in South Sudan which has been holding precariously since 2018 looks in danger of being blown to pieces thanks to the detention of opposition allies of the first vice-president Riek Machar.
Such are the kind of misgivings and fear gaining traction among stakeholders inside South Sudan and in the international community that the shaky peace deal which took years to realise may just unravel in one fell swoop.
The arrest of the deputy head of the national army Gen Gabriel Doup Lam and oil minister Puot Kang Chol who belong to Machar’s SPLM-IO party over armed skirmishes in the north of the country is the latest in a rash of incidents which once again cast an inquiring spotlight on the conviction of its stakeholders to hold firm to the peace process.
The world’s newest country of 11-48 million people may have all the hallmarks of a nation quickly sliding down the slippery slope to open conflict.
There was a sense of panic in Juba on Wednesday after reports that Machar’s home in the capital was surrounded by government troops. President Salva Kiir’s supporters in the government link him to an attack by the White Army militia on a military base in the country’s north.
Mr Machar and the White Army were once the staunchest of allies during the country’s war of independence against Sudan and there are suggestions that his sympathisers within the government identify with the militia.
Although the soldiers withdrew from the area around Machar’s Juba home, these developments may serve to untangle the peace process which has been shaky in the best of times and now looks like teetering on the brink.
Pal Mai Deng, who is a spokesperson of Machar’s party has sounded the alarm that the spate of arrest was pulling the nation back to the dangerous prospect of ”reopening old political wounds” and reigniting past rivalries between Kiir and his nemesis.
He said the ”systematic purge of opposition elements in the unity government is already causing feelings of alienation and mistrust which could scupper the peace deal that ended five years of bitter conflict, the trigger of which was a 2013 abortive coup against President Kiir. which Machar was accused of orchestrating.
To allay these fears, President Kiir has vowed that South Sudan would not revert back to civil war, despite these warnings by Machar allies and the country’s coteries of international backers who had invested in the peace agreement.
Although Kiir and Machar’s stewardship of the government of national unity has entered its seventh year, deep-seated problems remain including question marks over implementing crucial terms of the peace deal.
There are still several aspects of the peace process which remain unresolved including the fact that the military wing of the opposition SPLM-IO which Lam heads, has not been integrated into the South Sudanese regular army.
This was a key element of the peace initiative which its honest brokers thought would have welded all the disparate armed factions including former rebel soldiers into a single indivisible military establishment.
It was skirmishes like the one staged by the White Army militia against the regular army in Upper Nile State that such an arrangement was intended to preempt.
Sources say security officials in Unity State have been providing logistical support to the White Army in its military campaign against the Kiir-led government in Juba, underlining the deep divisions which the unity government has to contend with.
Local observers like Karbina Kiir Goch say Unity State Governor Riek Bim Top and Gen. Malieth Kak’s backing of the White Army speak to the deepening fractures within the political leadership which have not healed through the course of seven years of a de facto absence of war which does not signify any pretense to peace.
He says this protracted season of discontent countrywide is being fed by torrid economic times and the poisoned chalice of South Sudanese politics of which Kiir and Machar play the role of eternal foes.
As tensions refuse to peter out, the African Union is the latest to add its voice to the plaintive call for restraint, warning both sides that the violence could escalate and become nationwide.
Volatile South Sudan twice postponed elections originally scheduled for 2015 before deferring them to 2024 thanks to the precarious political situation and lack of funds.
The new date for the polls has been slated for December 2026 in the East African nation which has never held elections since independence almost 14 years ago.
WN/as/APA