APA-Kampala (Uganda) “You can have peace but at the same time, you may not be friends. This time I think we have both – we are friends and we are at peace. Thanks to you General Muhoozi for your role in this and for your conviction and for being that bridge we used to cross from one side to another” said President Paul Kagame as he attended a birthday dinner thrown by the son of his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni on April 24.
President Kagame’s words could not have captured the spirit of renewed optimism between his country and neighbouring Uganda any better and the role that Muhoozi is playing to clear any lingering mistrust between Kigali and Kampala.
Since 1999, relations between the two countries have deteriorated to an explosive point where Rwandan and Ugandan soldiers fought against each other in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo.
This mutual mode of hostility continued for the next twenty years and culminated in a three-year border closure which only ended last year with the intervention of General Muhoozi who has been widely hailed as the under-appreciated architect and hero of the new thaw in relations between the two formerly estranged neighbours.
Muhoozi celebrating his 49th birthday in Kigali instead of Kampala points to how far relations have come since those days when both Rwanda and Uganda accuse each other of backing rebels attempting to bring down their respective governments.
Kagame and his government were convinced that Uganda was aiding and abetting subversive activities by exiled dissident Rwandans most notable among them Tribert Rujugiro Ayabatwa, a business tycoon who had made his fortune in Kampala.
Museveni on the other hand believed that Rwanda had a network of spies to carry out espionage in Uganda.
Both countries had denied each other’s allegations and fastforward to 2023 they moved a step closer to buryng the hatchet.
Enter General Muhoozi Kainerugaba who made it almost into the life mission to reverse the mutual state of mistrust by first declaring that his Uganda would never in the future be a launching pad to prosecute subversive campaigns inside Rwanda.
Those who were waiting to test his sincerity did not wait long before a tweet emerged from him attempting to clear any lingering doubts about his real intentions.
He made pointed reference at Lt Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa, who since 2018 was working to oveerthrow the government in Kigali with the alleged support of Uganda, Burundi and DR Congo.
A UN report at the time suggested that Nyamwasa’s P5 rebel movement under the umbrella of the Rwanda National Congress (RNC) had been acquiring arms from these three countries.
Last year’s tweet by Muhoozi warned Nyamwasa against daring to use Uganda for the RNC adventure.
This had come soon after one of his flurry of visits to Kigali where he had met Kagame and members of his government regularly to keep alive a high channel of commnication with them with a view to furthering better understanding of what Rwanda and Uganda want from each other as neighbours.
As his first son, Muhoozi is widely touted as the successor to the aging Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and the composition of his entourage to Kigali for his birthday bash which was attended by Kagame’s wife and other officials spoke about the building blocks of a gradual power transition in Kampala.
Kigali as an important neghbour is being slowly introduced to the idea of getting used to Muhoozi as a successor to Kagame’s current counterpart Museveni.
The entourage to Kigali tellingly included Norbert Mao as Justice and Constitutional Affairs minister who had arrogated to himself the role of driving Uganda’s power transition to a new leader for Rwanda in the next five years with Muhoozi firmly in mind for the presidency.
Kagame seemed to have warmed to the idea of Muhoozi as Museveni’s successor given the easy chemistry between them.
His feelings for Uganda’s hier-apparent were unmistakable during last year’s trip to Kampala whe he said ”We are having difficulties between our countries but I was always convinced these were going to be temporary. The ties that bind us are deep”.
Analsyts say this ‘bromance’ between Kagame and Muhoozi culminated in the latter’s decision to spend his 49th birthday in the company of the former and his wife, pictures of which have since emerged showing the group apparently giving a toast to this newfound relationship.
Many observe that Museveni finds it more helpful using his son instead of Ugandan diplomats to clear the lingering clouds of distrust with Kagame at a personal level.
President Kagame himself explained how he and Muhoozi met.
”He went through friends, got my telephone number, sent me a message and we talked. I accepted. He then asked, ‘Can I visit you?’ I said, ‘Come’, the Rwandan leader said.
He added: “I was absolutely aware and convinced that even in my strongest belief in Muhoozi, the President of Uganda (his father) definitely must have been behind the message. I was not under any illusion that his was Muhoozi operating on his own.”
Trade as underlying factor
Both Kigali and Kampala have been looking to harness their potential for trade benefits in the region especially with the discovery of oil in Uganda and the advantages that peace in the mineral-rich DR Congo may present given its accession to the East African community on July 11th 2022.
The two countries may have suddenly realised that trade, development and security were the new priorities instead of counting the cost of disharmonies in economic ambitions and insecurity.
”The competition now should be on trade not on sowing the seeds of distrust in each other’s capitals” said one analyst, woh added that if Muhoozi could replicate his rapproachement in Rwanda’s relations with DR Congo, his place in the history of East Africn diplomacy would be all but assured.
WN/as/APA