The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product per capita declined to $835.49 in 2025 from $877.07 in 2024, indicating a 4.74 per cent dip.
According to data from the IMF website on Thursday, there has been a sustained downtrend since 2014, when the GDP per capita had stood at a high of $3,220.
Gross Domestic Product is the most commonly used measure of a country’s overall economic activity. It represents the total value at current prices of final goods and services produced within a country during a specified time divided by the average population for the same year. GDP per capita measures the average standard of living of a country’s citizens.
The IMF, however, projects a rise in 2026 and 2027, with the GDP per capita expected to cross the $1,000 mark in 2028 at $1,040.
The data also revealed that Nigeria and the majority of countries in sub-Saharan Africa are within the $500 to $2,500 GDP per capita band, with some below $500.
This decline comes amid a rebasing of the GDP by the National Bureau of Statistics, which will bring new sectors of the economy into consideration.
The new additions to the rebased GDP as announced by the National Bureau of Statistics were digital economy activities, pension funds, the National Health Insurance Scheme, the Nigerian Social Insurance Trust Fund, the activities of modular refineries, domestic households as employers of labour, quarrying and other mining activities, and illegal and hidden activities.
Despite the decline, the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index from Stanbic IBTC Bank indicated confidence in the business environment in Nigeria is on the rise, as reflected in increased output for the second consecutive month.
According to the latest PMI report, the budding growth in the Nigerian private sector seen at the end of 2024 was sustained into the first month of 2025, with new orders and business activity each continuing to rise.
Meanwhile, the IMF had projected that for Nigeria, 2025 real GDP growth would be 3.2 per cent, while inflation is estimated to drop to 25 per cent in the same year.
The projected GDP growth is lower than the 5.5 per cent estimated by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, which recently launched its 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report under the theme ‘Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond.’
NESG Chief Economist and Director of Research, Olusegun Omisakin, during his presentation, said, “A GDP growth rate of 5.5 per cent is achievable if Nigeria continues with stability-focused reforms. However, inefficient policy implementation and economic constraints could limit growth to 3.4 per cent, and a reversal of reforms could see it drop to 2.7 per cent. The quality of policy execution in 2025 will determine whether Nigeria reaches its stabilisation goals or falls short.”
At the same event, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, projected that the economy will grow by 4.1 per cent in 2025, as well as a record decline in inflation, with continued increases in foreign exchange inflow into the country.
Cardoso said, “Estimates of key economic indicators suggest a positive outlook for 2025 in particular; GDP growth is projected to rise to 4.17 per cent in 2025 from 3.36 per cent in 2024.
GIK/APA