APA-Pretoria (South Africa) As South Africa heads for elections on May 29, the political landscape resembles a complex game of chess.
The country faces its most unpredictable national election of the post-apartheid era in 2024, with the governing African National Congress (ANC) akin to a king surrounded by opposing pieces.
The ANC, once an unstoppable political force, is now grappling with significant decline, with several polls suggesting that the party is unlikely to achieve a majority of more than 50 percent in the 2024 general elections —mirroring patterns observed in recent municipal and local government elections.
In a recent poll published in early February, Paris-based global market research and public opinion specialist Ipsos found that the ANC looked set to lose its outright majority in national elections for the first time since 1994, while support for the populist opposition Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) expected to rise.
In all three scenarios outlining high, medium and low voter turnout, the poll showed that the ANC would garner less than 47 percent of votes, down from 57.5 percent during the last general elections held in 2019 and from 62.15 percent in 2014.
The expected decline in the popularity of the ANC suggests that it would need a coalition with a smaller party to form a government.
“In the event of such an election outcome, the ANC would only require a party with about 4 percent to 6 percent national support as a coalition partner to establish a national government,” Ipsos said in a statement.
However, although the decline of the ANC seems unstoppable, no obvious successor is likely to emerge. Both the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) and EFF are each seen unlikely to win enough majority to form the next government on their own.
The DA is seen retaining its position, with 20.2 to 21 percent of the vote across the three turnout scenarios, according to Ipsos.
This would be a marginal gain for the DA, which garnered 20.77 percent of the votes in 2019.
Support for the EFF is expected to range from 16.7 to 18.5 percent, up from 10.8 percent in the 2019 election.
Another survey conducted by Bloomberg, whose results were also published in early February, showed that political analysts think that the ANC risked losing its majority and would be forced into a coalition with smaller parties.
Opposition parties have also increased their capacity, experience and leverage in forming coalitions, which has enabled them to steadily reduce the ANC’s parliamentary majorities over time – including in historic ANC strongholds.
The DA last year entered into an alliance known as the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa with 10 rival parties, including the Inkatha Freedom Party, the Freedom Front Plus and Action SA.
Members of the alliance have agreed they would not work with the ANC or the EFF in the event there is need for a coalition government.
The John Steenhuisen-led DA must, however, overcome the perception of being a white-dominated party.
Led by the firebrand former ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema, the EFF has ridden on a wave of populist policies such as nationalization of mines and land redistribution.
The December 2023 decision by former president Jacob Zuma to endorse the recently formed uMkhnoto weSizwe (MK) party has added a new dimension to the options available on ANC’s political chessboard.
It is seen as a direct challenge to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership and could cost the ANC crucial votes in the May poll. Zuma remains popular among ANC supporters in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal and other areas of South Africa.
According to a recent survey by the Social Research Foundation, the MK has the potential to secure up to 24 percent of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal, which is South Africa’s second most populous province.
His endorsement of MK is expected to shave off crucial votes from ANC in KwaZulu-Natal and other regions, so would the formation late last year of another party, the African Congress for Transformation, by former ANC secretary general Ace Magashule.
A popular figure within the ANC, particularly in his native Free State province, Magashule was expelled from the party for misconduct although his supporters insist that the move was politically motivated.
The decline in the ruling party’s popularity is also attributed to perceptions of growing systemic corruption within the party, ANC insularity from ordinary South Africans and poor service delivery embodied by rolling electricity blackouts.
The worsening electricity crisis, characterised by daily power blackouts, is likely to hurt the ANC’s prospects.
According to an energy roadmap released by the government at the beginning of the year, it could take the country up to six years to witness an end to power cuts. The draft Integrated Resource Plan revealed that the country would need to build 6,000MW of new gas-fired power stations by 2030 before the current load-shedding comes to an end.
“South Africa also strains under the burden of growing inequality, poverty and youth unemployment,” the US-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) said.
Over 60 percent of 15- to 24-year-old South Africans are unemployed, and many in the country’s sprawling townships struggle to find enough to eat.
“The ANC’s long dominance makes it hard to escape responsibility for these popular grievances,” added ACSS.
Perceptions of impunity, associated with dominant-party political systems, make the ANC—and thus the government—vulnerable to state capture (control over government decision-making by private sector or external actors), warns ACSS.
In this game of political chess, the ANC, like a besieged king, must navigate the board carefully. The moves it makes now will determine its fate in the 2024 elections.
Last Saturday’s launch of ANC’s election manifesto in KwaZulu-Natal was expected to give an indication of how the party plans to protect its chess pieces and retain its position as king of South African politics.
JN/APA