Rebels in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo have unilaterally declared a ceasefire which comes into effect on Tuesday much to the relief of negotiators urging an end to hostilities.
The coalition of rebel movements led by M23 whose fighters have overran much of DR Congo’s eastern province and took control of Goma, the capital of North Kivu, issued a statement late on Monday saying the ceasefire is based on humanitarian grounds.
It will allow relief workers access to injured civilians still trapped in the unrest and give thousands of them a chance to leave the areas troubled by the fighting between rebel fighters and Congolese troops who had lost territory to the advancing M23.
But how long will this pause in the fighting last?
Given the notorious record of past ceasefires for failing after short trials, there is no indication that this latest one inspires hope or confidence. Several ceasefires in the past have been just one incident away from being violated, quickly followed by further belligerence.
Negotiations in the past one year led by João Lourenço the President of Angola have not silenced the guns or bought time for a long term truce and resolve the conflict. A ceasefire last August was quickly abandoned as hostilities resumed with a vengeance.
Early last year, M23 had issued a statement promising not to advance on Goma. In exactly the same language, the rebels have vowed not to advance on Bukavu, but the events of recent weeks including the capture of Goma from government troops, suggest just how uncertain, fragile and precarious promises of a truce in the DRC can be.
International observers say this latest cessation of hostilities on the part of the M23 movement may be a ruse to buy them time with which to prepare their troops for a new onslaught.
Negotiating a ceasefire or a resolution of the conflict pits two implacable adversaries namely, the Congolese government of President Felix Tshisekedi on the one hand and the Rwandan authorities through proxies in the M23 leadership.
There is no love-lust between Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame, the man seen by Kinshasa and the United Nations as the Pantomime villain in this protracted conflict which has reportedly killed over 1000 people and forced some 400, 000 from their homes.
Tshisekedi accuses Kagame of backing the M23 rebels who say their presence in DR Congo is to protect ethnic Tutsis.
Rwanda which has denied the allegation in turn accuses the authorities in Kinshasa of turning a blind eye on the alleged persecution of Tutsis by Hutu militias linked to the 1994 genocide.
WN/as/APA