Ethiopia’s total public external and domestic debt stock, including publicly guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt, reached $68,860.24 million by the end of June 2024, the Ethiopian Ministry of Finance announced on Tuesday.
In its Annual Public Sector Portfolio Analysis, the ministry said the country’s last year’s debt stock represents 32.9 percent of GDP, up from $63,329.33 million at the end of June 2023.
The analysis said the domestic debt in USD rose 12 percent to $39,969.86 million in 2023/24 from $35,080.18 million in 2022/23, while domestic debt in ETB rose 20.1 percent to ETB 2,291,791.93 million from ETB 1,915,178.00 million.
Total public sector external debt was USD 28,890.38 million as of June 30, 2024, up from $28,249.15 million as of June 30, 2023.
According to the analysis, the quantity of existing external debt increase was relatively minimal between the two periods. The increase in external total public sector debt is approximately $641.2 million, or it increases only by 2 percent.
A significant contributing factor to the minimal increase in the stock of external debt can be attributed to a relatively lower disbursement from external loans compared to principal payments and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, the analysis said.
Out of Ethiopia’s total external debt outstanding, multilateral agencies which provide highly concessional loans held about 52.0 percent while bilateral creditors have 28.31 percent share out of the total debt stock and the remaining owed by Private creditors.
Out of private creditors, commercial banks and suppliers held about 10.99 percent and about 3.18 percent, respectively while Eurobond held 3.47 percent. As of June 2024, the stock of treasury bills, long-term government bonds, direct advances, and Five-year treasury bonds accounted for approximately 19.88 percent, 31.85 percent, 10.74 percent, and 4.17 percent, respectively, of the total domestic debt. In terms of the domestic debt stock held by SOEs, corporate bonds and longterm loans made up 37.53 percent.
The United States Dollar (USD) made up 45.84 percent of Ethiopia’s external debt stock, followed by the Euro (6.58 percent), Chinese Yuan (1.52 percent), and SDR (43.75 percent), with other currencies making up 2.3 percent of the portfolio
The analysis further pointed out that the total public debt service payments in 2023/24 was USD 2,208.32 million with external debt service standing at USD 1,265.34 million while domestic debt service was at USD 942.98 million (ETB 54,068.69 million). As a percentage of the total public debt service, external and domestic debt service were 57.3 percent and 42.7 percent respectively.
Total public debt as a percentage of GDP was about 57.2 percent in 2019/20, and it went down to 48.5 percent in 2022. Currently, it stands at about 32.9 percent of GDP. The current external debt as a percentage of exports is 179.8 percent, while the threshold for Ethiopia is 150 percent (since Ethiopia is a weak performer in debt carrying capacity), indicating that this ratio is over the threshold for Ethiopia at the baseline.
The external debt service-to-export ratio, currently stands at approximately 11.3 percent— exceeding the established threshold of 10 percent—represents another export related indicator that has been breached, thereby elevating the country’s debt distress level to high risk.
The analysis further pointed out that the total public debt service payments in 2023/24 was USD 2,208.32 million with external debt service standing at USD 1,265.34 million while domestic debt service was at USD 942.98 million (ETB 54,068.69 million). As a percentage of the total public debt service, external and domestic debt service were 57.3 percent and 42.7 percent respectively.
Total public debt as a percentage of GDP was about 57.2 percent in 2019/20, and it went down to 48.5 percent in 2022. Currently, it stands at about 32.9 percent of GDP. The current external debt as a percentage of exports is 179.8 percent, while the threshold for Ethiopia is 150 percent (since Ethiopia is a weak performer in debt carrying capacity), indicating that this ratio is over the threshold for Ethiopia at the baseline.
The external debt service-to-export ratio, currently stands at approximately 11.3 percent— exceeding the established threshold of 10 percent—represents another export related indicator that has been breached, thereby elevating the country’s debt distress level to high risk.
MG/abj/APA