The African Union (AU), the United Nations (UN) Economic Commission for Africa, the African Development Bank, and the UN Development Program have warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a “serious risk” to African economies.
In a joint policy brief issued over the weekend, the organizations said the longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption on shipping routes, energy, and fertilizer supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across Africa.
The organizations stressed that the conflict, which has already triggered a trade shock, could quickly become “a cost-of-living crisis” through higher fuel and food prices. Rising shipping costs, insurance premiums, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions could further compound the crisis, with vulnerable households bearing the heaviest burden.
The Middle East accounts for 15.8 percent of Africa’s imports and 10.9 percent of exports, which highlights the critical implications of the current situation for African economies, according to the brief.
Highlighting that the fertilizer channel may prove more impactful than oil shocks for some countries, the policy brief noted that disruptions to Gulf liquid natural gas supply would affect ammonia and urea production, raising fertilizer costs during the crucial March-to-May planting season.
It warned that the phenomenon will put further upward pressure on food prices and hit vulnerable households hardest, with significant negative impacts on food security in Africa.
Expressing concern over potential geopolitical spillover effects that could reshape Africa’s security, the policy brief also warned that a wider conflict could intensify competition for influence in Africa, with regional conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Libya already reflecting external sponsorship.
The brief emphasized the importance of strengthening energy security, safeguarding and restoring fiscal space, accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, and establishing financial safety nets across Africa as essential strategies for building resilience.
MG/abj/APA