The year 2024 has barely come to an end but Africa is still basking in some remarkable accomplishments while also reeling from downturns pivoting it to one form of crisis or another.
The past 12 months could never have thrown up more contrasting fortunes for the continent, from hitch-free elections followed by smooth transitions to harsh economic and social realities which forced people onto the streets protesting and demanding better conditions of living.
It was a year which saw the effects of climate change leaving death, destruction and huge losses in their wake and stuttering transitions to democracy literally barreling toward dead alleyways where postponement was the natural outcome.
Elections, a breath of fresh air
With Mozambique and Namibia the only exceptions in 2024 as violence threatened their aftermath, elections across the continent have offered a breath of fresh air. The year will be remembered for images of poll victors exhibiting magnanimity in their triumph as those defeated showed gracious maturity by being philosophical in their loss.
Out of the 19 African nations and territories that were slated to go to the polls through the course of 2024, eight held national elections which according to the parameters of the African Center for Strategic Studies were ”genuinely competitive”.
Notable among them were Senegal, Ghana and Botswana where incumbents or their handpicked candidates were defeated and smooth transfer of power successfully staged.
Almost the whole of Africa rejoiced when Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye at 44 became the youngest elected leader on the continent after swapping prison for the presidential palace in Dakar thanks to his thumping election victory over Amadou Ba, his predecessor Macky Sall’s preferred choice to succeed him.
In Ghana John Dramani Mahama made a dramatic comeback to the presidency eight years after being banished to the political wilderness by voters in favour of the now outgoing President Nana Akufo-Addo. Mahama’s was a hard fought triumph against the odds heavily stacked up by a challenge from the incumbent’s vice-president Dr Mahamadou Bawumia who shocked the world by conceding.
In Africa’s south, Botswana’s 54-year old lawyer Duma Boko’s election victory brought to an abrupt end the political hegemony of the Botswana Democratic Party which had ruled the country without interruption since 1964, making voters realise for the first time the potent power in their ballot. In Mauritius, voters gave former prime minister Navin Ramgoolam a 62.6 percent landslide victory over incumbent Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth who with a humble poise conceded November’s polls to his election nemesis.
In South Africa, Namibia, and the Somali enclave of Somaliland, where ruling parties have been holding sway for more than a generation, incumbents were given a good run for their money by growing opposition movements made very strong by the climate of disaffection which turned the frustrations caused by rising unemployment, cost of living and governments not responsive to their wishes and aspirations into protest votes that favoured the opposition.
According to a report by the African Center for Strategic Studies, the outcomes of the elections in 2024, ”send a powerful message of the prospects for power sharing and democratic self-renewal”.
It says noteworthy amid all these was the first transfer of power since independence in Botswana and the shifting political dynamics in South Africa where the African National Congress in power since the end of apartheid in 1994 was forced to coexist in a government of national unity (GNU) in South Africa after losing its absolute majority in parliament. What resulted is unprecedented, putting the ANC in an arrangement with other forces which sprang from the fringes of the rainbow nation’s political landscape.
However, the immediate aftermath of elections in Mozambique and Namibia shows a continent still wrestling with a familiar ghost, a lingering residue of its past when poll outcomes were hotly contested, dismissed as rigged and protests called to the streets to express this and bore the brunt of blunt and brute force. What these two Southern African countries share in common is being ruled by elites from parties that had held power since independence. Their near-demise at the recent polls was seen by analysts and political boffins as a refreshing break with the ‘sterile past’, and a good harbinger of a future in which votes are imbued with the power to change the course of history.
There were also elections in Mauritania, Comoros, Rwanda, Chad in the course of 2024 but their outcomes while in favour of ruling governments became exceptions to the growing norm that the results of 21st century polls in Africa are near impossible to call before the ballots are cast because the competition for votes has become stiff and unpredictable.
Election no-shows
There were postponed elections in South Sudan, junta-led Mali and Burkina Faso where conflicts have provided a convenient excuse to defer the vote, giving the governments more time and space to consolidate their grip on power. Although some semblance of stability has return to South Sudan, the world’s newest nation has still not turned a corner to create a conducive environment for multi-party elections which have been rescheduled for December 2026. The country has never held elections since it gained independence from the rest of Sudan in July 2011, thanks to a civil war which began in December 2013 when President Salva Kiir accused his current vice president Riek Machar of orchestrating a coup. The military juntas in the West African countries of Mali and Burkina Faso are battling insurgencies who have rendered vast swathes of the Sahel ungovernable. While there are transitions in place with the aim of leading to elections, these processes have been slow and disrupted by conflicts.
A rash of diplomatic fissures
On the diplomatic front, 2024 got off to a difficult start for Somalia-Ethiopia relations after the latter reached a deal with the enclave of Somaliland for access to a Red Sea port for trade in exchange for recognition as a sovereign nation by Addis Ababa. Somaliland which is not internationally recognised as an independent country is regarded by Somalia as its sovereign territory. Therefore its agreement with Ethiopia was viewed in Mogadishu as an affront to Somalia’s territorial integrity and led to diplomatic frictions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, a situation which is still largely unresolved. Although Ethiopia has publicly renounced the controversial deal with Somaliland thanks to negotiations brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayib Erdogan, the dust is yet to settle on the two countries diplomatic fissures as Somalia excludes Ethiopia from the list of troop contributing countries for the changeover from the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Aside from relying on regional support Somalia has been looking further afield for allies most notably Egypt with which it has signed a defense pact ostensibly to soften any belligerence from neighbouring Ethiopia. Toward the close of the year, Egypt had sent military boots on the ground in Somalia accompanied by heavy duty military hardware. This has sent alarm bells in Ethiopia which has a long running feud with Egypt over the building of a controversial dam for hydroelectric power on the River Nile. Egypt claims that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) which is now almost 90 percent completed since it was started in 2011, could compromise its share of water from the world’s longest river. The authorities in Addis Ababa have rebuffed this as untrue and ‘unnecessarily alarmist’. Since then tension has been building between Egypt and Ethiopia, leading to fears that this could lead to a military showdown between two of Africa’s most powerful armies. The row over GERD on the Nile is still unresolved going into 2025.
Other feuds between neighbours are Rwanda and DRC on the one hand and Niger and Nigeria on the other.The incursion in the east of the DR Congo by M23 rebel movement is being blamed on Paul Kagame-led Rwanda who the Congolese accuse of supporting the rebels with logistics, an allegation Kigali has repeatedly denied. Attempts by France to resolve the personal differences between President Kagame and his Congolese counterpart Felix Tshisekedi have not borne much in the way of easing tensions or bringing about a truce in eastern DRC. Angolan President João Lourenço who was appointed by the African Union to mediate an end to the conflict was supposed to meet with leaders of the two countries but called the talks after Rwanda demanded as a precondition that DRC negotiate directly with the M23. This was rejected by Mr Tshisekedi who met Lourenço in December.
Meanwhile, two West African neighbours with more in common thanks to shared geographic and cultural identities have had tempestuous relations. Since the July 2023 coup which ousted Mohamed Bazoum in Niger and the coming to power of Abdourahmane Tchiani as military leader of the country, relations with its neighbour Nigeria led by the democratically elected President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have been strained. Tinubu as chair of the Economic Community of West African States has led opposition to Bazoum’s ouster and spoke about zero tolerance for coups in the region and even threatened military intervention led by Nigeria to reverse the coup. This did not endear Nigeria or Ecowas to the military regime in Niamey who called Ecowas’ bluff by announcing in January 2024 that Niger was quitting the bloc and joining a new organisation with neighbouring Burkina Faso and Mali, estranged members of the regional bloc also ruled by the military following coups in those countries in 2023 and 2020 respectively. While Ecowas gave the three recalcitrant states a ‘grace period’ to reconsider their decision to leave the 15-member bloc, the three juntas remain unimpressed and announced almost immediately the setting up of the Alliance of Sahel States known by its French acronym AES. The three states accused Ecowas of being used by France to further its geopolitical interests in a region where it was once the dominant colonial power. The past year has been characterised by accusations from Niamey that Nigeria and some other Ecowas members were colluding with France to destabilise Niger. These allegations have been dismissed as a ruse by Niger and her allies to win public opinion. The general hostility felt toward France in the region and beyond has culminated in the hurried departure of French troops from several of these countries including Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso who are battling insurgencies holding large territories in the Sahel. Countries like Ivory Coast and Chad are the latest examples of former French colonies that have renounced their military ties with France dating back to the 1960s.
Turf war scramble for Africa
In the past 12 months Africa’s new alternatives to the Western powers, China, Russia and to some extent Iran have gained footholds on the continent. According to the African Center for Strategic Studies these ”new darlings” from the east ”facilitated the democratic backsliding witnessed in Africa in recent years” by way of disinformation campaigns, open interference in elections, and mercenary interventions to protect non-democratic regimes as long as these means serve their expansionist ambitions. Protest movements in Nigeria and Kenya were reportedly infiltrated by footstools of these powers to further their designs.
Africa has become increasingly attractive to China as an ”operating theatre” to fuel its global competition with the United States, and the European Union. To endear African leaders to the Chinese model, Beijing has opened a political school in Africa to shape media environments away from Western-styled platforms with altered mindsets more amenable to the Chinese worldview This has turned Africa into a cold war-like turf where the world’s eastern and western powers battle for influence which would guarantee them access to the continent’s coveted resources.
Climate chaos as COP29 failed Africa
Africa has had its fair or unfair share of the world’s environmental woes in 2024 blamed exclusively on climate change. Floods had inundated and devastated its cities from Lagos, Dakar and Conakry in West Africa, to Nairobi, Kigali in the east and Mozambique and South Africa in the south of the continent. According to the African Wildlife Foundation, in its report ”A Year of Wake-Up Calls, Lessons, and Resolve for African Conservation”, over 3 million people were adversely affected by the floods in Nigeria which incurred economic losses exceeding $2 billion.
”Nairobi’s urban infrastructure, ill-prepared for extreme weather, suffered over $1.5 billion in damages, highlighting the cost of inaction on climate resilience” it says.
There were catastrophic scenes in Southern Africa which witnessed the region’s worst drought in decades leaving the Kariba Dam—the main hydropower source for Zimbabwe and Zambia with low levels of water. the result has been reduced electricity output by 60% and caused a spinoff effect on local industries and economies in the region.
Wildlife in Africa has been stripped of flora and flauna as resources dwindled to alarming proportions and inter-communal violence resulted in the scramble for them. For example the conflict between farmers and cattle herders in Nigeria is well documented.
According to the report Namibia during the course of last year witnessed its worst wildlife mortality since the early 2000s, leaving climate campaigners blaming climate change for undermining the continent’s biodiversity despite contributing the least in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Morocco, Mozambique, Guinea, Chad, Nigeria and Senegal also experienced weather extremes in the form of floods which destroyed infrastructure, crops and livelihoods.
According to the International Institute for Environment and Development, the momentum for progress in climate change which gathered pace in COP16 in Cali, Colombia was lost at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan especially for Africa. African climate conservation was at the heart of the issues at stake during the conference and leaders of the continent had helped shape resolutions aimed at securing funding for biodiversity schemes and encourage more commitment to phasing out fossil fuels. However, COP29 did not succeed in delivering on these critical issues nor were there any tangible guarantees to establish climate accountability mechanisms with would commit the world’s big emitters to them. Thus Africa found itself in the same stark corner it was before Baku as its harsh climate situations remained largely ignored. However, climate campaigners say this was a wake up call for Africa to take its own self-reliant measures to fund its conservation schemes in the absence of any firm commitments from industrialised and richer nations. They argue that Africa’s private sector should be included as a critical player in driving innovative climate solutions.
Unresolved conflicts
Despite several attempts to broker a ceasefire, the conflicts in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo raged throughout last year with devastating consequences for civilians especially women and children, millions of whom were forced to flee. Forces of the Sudanese regular army loyal to military junta leader Abdel fattah al-Burhan have been battling paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces under Mohamed Hamden Dagalo for control of the country since April 2023. Heart-rendering stories of suffering linked to the conflict continue to emerge from Sudan where humanitarian activities have been hampered by the fighting.
The end of 2024 did not provide neat conclusions to the insurgencies raging in DR Congo where rebels of the M23 movement overran large swathes of the country’s east, unsettling tens of thousands of people in the region. The turn of the new year has witnessed an upsurge in the fighting between regulars of the DR Congolese army and M23 fighters. The conflict has fueled tensions underlined by mutual distrust between Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame who is accused of backing the M23 in their war of attrition against the government in Kinshasa. Kagame has strenuously denied colluding the the rebels to destabilise eastern DR Congo. Several attempts to resolve this distrust including talks engineered by French President Emmanuel Macron last October. Tshisekedi and Kagame distrust each other so much that there was not even a casual glance to each other when they appeared with Macron for an official photo after the french leader had met them separately ahead of a Francophone summit in Paris. Angola which was appointed to head the African mediation efforts has not fared any better.
Other trouble spots include Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Cameroon, where a cycle of violent insurgencies has undermined social cohesion and economic progress as people continue to live with the consequences of conflicts which had defied all efforts to resolve them. These conflicts continue to pose challenges to governments and their capacity to contain them.
Tales of economic woe
Africa’s overall economic outlook constituted a mixed bag of contrasting fortune. African economies have been severely tested by a combination of inflationary pressures and external debt. 2024 began as Sub-Saharan Africa witnessed the effects of a global economic slowdown which characterised 2023. Fiscal stability had been hampered by a rise in interest rates in most countries during the past 12 months, and hikes in commodity prices. This left even mineral -rich African countries dealing with the destabilising effects of flagging revenue streams.
Despite robust investments in the energy, infrastructure, and technology sectors, inflation persisted in most African countries although there were indications that it had been tamed in a country such as Ghana.
Extreme weather situations from namely droughts to floods caused food insecurity and a corresponding rise in commodity prices which amounted to a cost-of-living crisis for millions on the continent. The response by African governments was through reforms to boost revenue collection and inspire confidence in the business sector.
Meanwhile the IMF had projected that growth remained steady with regional GDP growth at approximately 3.8%, which is slightly better than the previous year, 2023. Côte d’Ivoire and Rwanda made some notable economic recoveries thanks to improved governance stability and a robust investment climate.
”These pockets of progress highlight Africa’s capacity to recover and adapt” says the IMF in its outlook for the continent.
A year blighted by epidemics
Mpox, malaria, dengue fever had made 2024 a challenging year for the continent’s healthcare workers and their international partners. To date mpox continues to put pressure on already overstretched health systems with more African countries reporting cases of the disease. With symptoms such as rashes, fever and swollen lymph nodes, Mpox is caused by the monkeypox virus and was first detected in 1958 in the DR Congo and other tropical rainforest countries. According to the WHO Regional Office for Africa, by the end of 2024, there were 19,956 laboratory-confirmed cases and 82 deaths. It reported a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.4% from the disease which has prompted the WHO to declare public health emergencies of a global scale in a number of African countries.
Ethiopia alone reported over 19 million malarial cases in the course of last year while dengue fever has been on a surge worldwide since 2019, posing a great threat to people across the globe. In November the French relief group Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF) warned of a significant public health challenge in Ethiopia where over 7.3 million malaria cases were reported last year.
A year earlier, the WHO reported 4.1 million in Ethiopia, making the country one of the highest burden countries in East Africa. Meanwhile over 7.6 million dengue cases were reported to WHO in 2024, including 3.4 million confirmed cases. Of these over 16 000 were graded severe cases and just over 3000 fatalities were reported during this period. At seven million cases by April 2024, the region of the Americas was particularly affected by the worldwide dengue outbreak since 2019. This had gone beyond the annual high of 4.6 million cases witnessed in 2023.
Despite the absence of reliable up to date figures on transmission, it is generally known that close to 100 countries have witnessed ‘active dengue transmission’ in 2024. The WHO warned that there is a danger of underestimating the spread of the disease thanks to the lack of strong detection and reporting mechanisms to keep track of cases. Dengue virus is transmitted through the bite of an infected mosquito.
WN/as/APA