The International Crisis Group (ICG) has identified Mali and Burkina Faso as high-priority regions for global security monitoring in its annual “Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2026” report.
The analysis warns that both nations are entering a critical phase where armed groups are shifting their tactics toward economic sabotage and the disruption of vital supply chains. Rather than seeking direct control of capital cities, insurgent groups—most notably Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)—are focusing on strangling the roads and infrastructure that connect urban centers to neighboring countries.
In Mali, the report highlights a strategy of “indirect pressure.” While state institutions remain firmly in control of Bamako and other major cities, militants are increasingly targeting tanker convoys, border crossings, and strategic industrial sites. This approach aims to weaken the government by paralyzing the movement of goods and people, effectively creating an economic blockade without a full-scale military offensive on the capital. The ICG notes that these localized actions are designed to shift the balance of power over the long term by making the cost of governance and commerce unsustainable.
The situation in Burkina Faso mirrors these challenges, with the report documenting frequent attacks on secondary towns and the severing of regional transport links. These disruptions have caused significant mobility restrictions for civilians and have severely impacted domestic trade. The ICG emphasizes that the instability in both countries is no longer a purely domestic issue; the disruption of major West African trade corridors is now a significant threat to the economic stability of the entire region.
According to the ICG, the trajectory for 2026 remains uncertain and will depend heavily on the political decisions made by the transition authorities and the effectiveness of their regional security responses. As the year progresses, the international community is urged to closely monitor how these “supply chain wars” affect the humanitarian situation and the overall resilience of the West African economic bloc.
MD/Sf/fss/abj/APA