The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth outlook upward, projecting a 3.9 per cent GDP expansion in 2025, a growth that it pegged on higher oil production, stronger investor confidence, and a more supportive fiscal stance as key drivers.
According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook titled ‘Global Economy in Flux, released on Tuesday, the prospects remain dim, reflects a 0.5 percentage point increase from its previous forecast and signals renewed optimism about the country’s medium-term economic prospects.
In July, the IMF revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025 upward to 3.4 per cent, a 0.4 percentage point increase from the 3.0 per cent forecast published in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
Speaking at the press conference to mark the launch of the report, the Chief of the IMF Research Department, Deniz Igan, said, “Yes, we have revised Nigeria’s growth outlook upwards. For 2025, we now project GDP growth at 3.9 per cent, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than our earlier forecast. We have also upgraded the 2026 growth projection by 0.9 percentage points to 4.2 per cent.
“In fact, the 2024 growth figure has also been revised upward to 4.1 per cent, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than previously estimated.
The upward revision for 2024 reflects the authorities’ GDP rebasing, which provides broader coverage of economic activities, including those in the informal sector that were previously under-represented.
“For 2025 and 2026, the improved outlook reflects reduced uncertainty and the limited impact of U.S. tariffs on Nigeria, given its relatively low exposure to those markets; the appreciation of the exchange rate since July and stronger financial conditions due to rising investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance, and higher oil production under improved security conditions, which has led to stronger hydrocarbon growth. All these factors together contributed to the upward revisions in Nigeria’s medium-term growth forecast.”
While Nigeria’s growth has been reviewed upwards, growth for the sub-Saharan Africa region is expected to remain subdued, unchanged in 2025 from 4.1 per cent in 2024, before picking up to 4.4 per cent in 2026.
“This is an upward revision relative to the April 2025 WEO forecast by a cumulative 0.5 percentage point, but a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point compared with the October 2024 WEO.
“Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and given its limited exposure to higher US tariffs, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the Changing international trade and official aid landscape,” the report by Punch newspaper on Wednesday quoted the report as saying.
GIK/APA