The Trump administration’s recently announced 25% tariff increase on several Tunisian products casts a significant shadow over one of Tunisia’s leading agricultural exports: olive oil.
In 2023, this sector alone generated $223 million (approximately €205 million) in export revenue to the United States, making it Tunisia’s primary export to that market, according to Trading Economics data reported by Arabian Gulf Business Insight (AGBI).
The new tariff measure could severely undermine the competitiveness of Tunisian olive oil exporters. “Margins are already low; they will likely have to pass the cost on to consumers, which will affect their sales,” warned Sahar Mechmech, an analyst at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, in a statement to AGBI.
Although the US market currently accounts for only about 3% of total Tunisian exports, it represents a crucial avenue for diversification, especially as the European Union heavily restricts non-quota olive oil imports to protect its own producers.
Economist Zaid Alshaalan of the IACE think tank suggests that while some companies might try to absorb the additional cost or redirect production, many will likely see their US market access shrink. The absence of a free trade agreement between Tunis and Washington further exacerbates this vulnerability.
Beyond olive oil, other strategic Tunisian sectors like textiles, dates, and machinery are also affected by the new tariffs. This tightening of trade policy aligns with a broader protectionist trend by the Trump administration, potentially hampering Tunisia’s overall trade prospects, which are already challenged by limited access to European markets and volatile global agricultural prices.
MK/ac/Sf/fss/abj/APA