Forecasts predicting below-average rainfall on the Ethiopian Plateau have reignited fears of a drought in the Nile Basin – a scenario that Egyptian authorities and several experts, however, consider premature.
The Ethiopian plateau is the primary source of the Blue Nile’s summer floods, which are essential to Egypt’s water supply. Initial climate projections have raised questions about the expected flood level, but Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Hani Sewilam, asserts that no scientific conclusions can be drawn at this time.
According to the minister, weather forecasts remain subject to change, and a final assessment can only be made at the end of the rainy season, typically toward the end of August.
The Egyptian Nile Inflow Committee monitors flow rates daily and adjusts management scenarios based on the actual volumes observed.
Initial data paint a mixed picture. Blue Nile flows during the first two months of the flood season were below average, while White Nile inflows recorded between March and May exceeded their usual levels.
Authorities say they are preparing several scenarios to ensure the country’s water supply regardless of hydrological conditions.
The Aswan High Dam and the reserves of Lake Nasser remain Egypt’s primary means of protection against fluctuations in floodwaters. Their ability to mitigate a potential dry spell will, however, depend on the duration of the dry spell and future river inflows. Cairo also highlights the uncertainties stemming from the lack of a binding
agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), as well as instability in Sudan.
Water resources expert Abbas Sharaky believes that the available indicators do not suggest the onset of a prolonged drought cycle.
He points out that the Nile Basin experiences a natural alternation of wet and dry periods, citing the drought from 1981 to 1987, followed by the major flood of 1988.
Egypt’s water pressure, however, remains structural. Annual availability has fallen from more than 2,000 cubic meters per capita in the early 1970s to about 500 cubic meters today, driven by population growth.
In the face of climate variability, experts are calling for rationalising water use, strengthening the resilience of
the water system, and developing unconventional water resources.
MK/AK/Sf/fss/as/APA