Federal security forces lack the military capability to take over from the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and keep al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamic extremist group at bay, according to an International Crisis Group (ICG) report seen by APA on Thursday.
Recently, Foreign Policy Magazine said al-Shabaab has taken control of larger parts of rural Somalia with its militants collecting taxes and recruiting new militants to topple the federal government in Mogadishu.
According ICG’S report Somali forces had continued to rely on external support to conduct operations in the region.
ICG also pointed out that political disputes between the federal government and some federal member states, particularly Puntland and Jubaland, were hampering efforts to build a unified national military.
“Somalia has established bilateral security arrangements with Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia,” the report said, adding that those agreements could allow troops from the three countries to remain in Somalia even if AUSSOM is scaled down or eventually ends.
The United States, meanwhile, is expected to continue conducting separate counter terrorism operations in Somalia against al-Shabaab, according to the report.
ICG warned that if United Nations support through the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) ends, AUSSOM could struggle to maintain its operations at their current level. Areas vacated by AUSSOM forces could become vulnerable to attacks or attempts by al-Shabaab to retake territory, it said.
Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle were identified as areas requiring particular security planning, with key towns and roads likely to need dedicated protection as international forces draw down.
Somali forces and troops from countries with bilateral security agreements with the federal government could play a role in securing those areas after AUSSOM’s withdrawal, the report said.
ICG urged the Somali government and its international partners to urgently develop a new security plan before UNSOS support is fully phased out, warning that a lack of preparation could create security gaps during the transition.
MG/as/APA