The World Bank’s latest ranking of countries based on per capita income reveals a worrying stagnation in the Maghreb economies, despite years of public investment and sectoral reforms.
According to the World Bank’s new categories as of July 2025, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia all remain in the lower-middle-income group, with no significant improvement compared to previous years.
This classification is based on the threshold of gross national income (GNI) per capita, set at between $1,136 and $4,465.
While some sub-Saharan African countries are beginning to move up to the upper tier, the Maghreb states appear stuck on a moderate growth trajectory, insufficient to lead to a significant improvement in living standards.
Morocco, despite its dynamic export sectors (automotive, agriculture, phosphates), is capped at around $3,800 per capita GNI, according to 2024 estimates.
In Tunisia, political crises and energy dependence are weighing on a slowing economy, with an
estimated GNI per capita of $3,600.
Algeria, still dependent on hydrocarbons, hovers around $3,900, without significant diversification.
Regional performance contrasts with the rise of certain African countries such as Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, which, despite starting from lower levels, are posting stronger income growth rates.
For World Bank economists, this stagnation in per capita income in the Maghreb reveals structural limitations: low productivity, unequal governance, weak regional integration, and a sluggish private sector.
Added to this are the challenges related to youth employment, incomplete digital transformation, and a still-embryonic energy transition.
MK/ac/Sf/fss/as/APA