Morocco’s economy is projected to sustain strong momentum through the end of 2025, with growth expected to accelerate to 4.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the latest economic report from the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
This optimistic outlook is being driven primarily by dynamic secondary and tertiary sectors, supported by controlled inflation that remains below the 2% target threshold.
The national economy started the period strongly, expanding by 5.5% in the second quarter. This growth was buoyed by a significant 8.5% recovery in exports and sustained domestic demand growth of 9.2%. Key sectors—including manufacturing, mining, construction, and hospitality—contributed nearly 40% of the overall expansion, helping to recover activity lost since the pandemic.
However, the third quarter is expected to see a slight rebalancing, with growth anticipated to slow marginally to 4.3%. This minor deceleration is attributed to a less favorable international environment, particularly a slowdown in European demand, which affects Moroccan exports outside the Eurozone. Despite this, investment is projected to remain highly dynamic at +14.2% thanks to ongoing infrastructure projects, while household consumption is forecast to grow by 4.1%, supported by rising wages and consumer prices moderating to just year-on-year.
Looking ahead to the end of the year, the HCP forecasts a slight acceleration back up to 4.7% growth in the fourth quarter. This performance is expected to be fueled by a recovery in foreign demand and continued fiscal support measures.
The financial environment remains favorable, with Bank Al-Maghrib maintaining its key interest rate at and the money supply increasing by . The MASI stock index also reflects strong confidence, showing an annual gain of led by industry, tourism, and mining. Furthermore, the outlook for implementing the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 is expected to provide a tailwind, strengthening industrial momentum, particularly in the chemical, electrical, and equipment sectors.
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