Last week, President Salva Kiir in a bid to allay lingering security fears in the world’s newest country, assured his compatriots that calm has been restored nationwide.
Life continues as normal despite a change at the top of South Sudanese politics from which Kiir seemed to have emerged stronger and more assured of support from almost all sections of the government whose members have been professing loyalty to him.
Even Machar’s base appears to be growing thinner with some of his supporters openly declaring allegiance to Mr Kiir, a foe who has survived several attempts by his opponents to wallop him politically.
As April winds to a close all indications suggest that Kiir remains the dominant political figure in South Sudan.
But is it the general superficial calm before the storm?
This pretense to peace belies something stark, which cannot mask the uncertainty enveloping South Sudanese politics as Riek Machar, stripped of his position as vice-president continues to languish in detention.
Machar was part of a power-sharing government after a peace agreement in 2018. Many including the international community fear that his detention would plunged the country into another civil war.
South Sudan was riven by civil war since Machar was accused of orchestrating a coup against Kiir in December 2013 which only ended with a peace agreement five years later.
Before this it also witnessed decades of a secession conflict which led to independence from the rest of Sudan in July 2011.
Since then peace and stability have come in intermittent bursts followed by unrest.
Observers say the country is still on a knife edge with politically-motivated purges targeting Machar allies who are either dismissed from their positions or detained.
Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Opposition have complained of political persecution since Kirr’s rival was placed under house arrest with his wife and bodyguards last month.
It follows unrest in Upper Nile State where troops loyal to Kiir’s government were involved in skirmishes with White Army fighters, widely seen as allies of Mr Machar.
The former rebel leader’s association with the militia dates back to the bush war of liberation.
Despite several calls for Machar’s release, the government sees him as a dangerous fugitive who will be charged with treason and subversion.
Adding to this state of flux is the curt denial of access to Machar by foreign diplomats.
Earlier this month, the EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa, Dr Annette Weber and her delegation were denied access to Mr Machar.
This was after holding talks about his situation with senior government officials including Dr Benjamin Bol Mel, the Minister of Information, the Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs and the Minister of Cabinet Affairs.
It was the third time access to Machar was refused after the Kenyan President William Ruto’s special envoy Raila Odinga who was in Juba last month to help defuse tensions. He was not allowed to meet the high-profile detainee.
Even members of the so-called Panel of the Wise who were at the behest of the African Union were unable to meet Machar.
South Sudan’s partners including the United States have criticised the treatment of Mr Machar and expressed concerns over his safety.
Given the underlying tensions between the government and Machar loyalists, many fear that the 2018 peace agreement hangs by a thread.
Meanwhile the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is throwing its diplomatic weight behind the AU to deescalate the situation with help from the EU.
WN/as/APA