Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to demonstrate significant economic resilience, achieving an average growth rate of 4.1% in 2025, according to the latest Regional Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Despite a tense global environment marked by high public debt, the IMF suggests the sub-region still has room for strength, provided it intensifies its domestic resource mobilization efforts and significantly improves debt management. Growth is projected to rebound slightly further in 2026.
The IMF’s report, titled “Holding the Ground,” applauds the region’s resilience in the face of major global challenges, including low oil prices, declining development assistance, and tighter borrowing conditions.
However, the IMF cautions that this strength “cannot be taken for granted,” highlighting significant macroeconomic vulnerabilities. The institution warns that “most countries in the region face a combination of fiscal, monetary, and external risks,” with twenty countries already classified as being in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress.
Growth is being driven by structural reforms in major economies like Ethiopia and Nigeria, as well as the strong performance of countries like Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Rwanda, and Uganda. In contrast, resource-rich and conflict-affected nations are struggling, with their per capita income growing by only 1% per year on average.
The report identifies two major priorities essential for strengthening macroeconomic stability: Governments must raise more internal revenue by digitizing tax administrations, reducing exemptions, and broadening the tax base. More transparent and rigorous public debt management is crucial to restoring investor confidence and lowering high borrowing costs.
The IMF also encourages the use of innovative financing instruments, such as blended finance mechanisms and debt-for-development swaps, while simultaneously urging governments to strengthen governance and fiscal transparency.
The report concludes by stressing the need for balance: “In a context of persistent uncertainty, countries must preserve macroeconomic stability while pursuing their development objectives,” requiring authorities to balance fiscal discipline, social inclusion, and sustainable economic reforms.
ARD/Sf/fss/abj/APA