Tunisia is currently facing a period of “silent deindustrialization,” characterized by a slow but steady erosion of its manufacturing sector that poses a significant threat to the nation’s economic sovereignty and social stability.
A recent policy brief from the Tunisian Association of Economists, authored by Professor Hatem Mhenni and titled “Neither Robotized nor Protected: Tunisian Industry in Decline,” suggests that this is not a sudden collapse but a structural decay. The study warns that the country is losing its productive capacity because it has failed to implement necessary technological upgrades or protective strategic shifts.
The scale of this decline is clearly reflected in data from the National Institute of Statistics and the World Bank. Since the mid-1990s, industry’s share of Tunisia’s GDP has fallen from nearly 30% to just 23.5% in 2023, with manufacturing alone dropping from 17% to 15%. This trend has accelerated recently, as evidenced by the closure of 433 factories between 2019 and 2022, particularly in the textile, food processing, and construction sectors. Furthermore, a 17% drop in declared industrial investments during the first quarter of 2024 indicates that both new projects and modernization efforts have stalled, further undermining national competitiveness.
The social consequences of this industrial retreat are particularly devastating in inland regions such as Kasserine and Gafsa, where manufacturing was once a cornerstone of formal employment. Economists estimate that for every industrial job lost, two to three indirect jobs in related services also vanish. This contraction has become a primary driver of unemployment among young graduates, with rates in some areas climbing above 30%, while simultaneously pushing more citizens toward the informal economy or emigration.
Ultimately, the weakening of the industrial base is hollowing out the Tunisian middle class, which traditionally serves as the engine for domestic demand and social cohesion. The analysis concludes that without a total overhaul of the national industrial strategy and a significant commitment to technological investment, Tunisia faces a deepening structural crisis. The ongoing loss of a robust manufacturing core may have permanent implications for the country’s ability to remain economically independent and socially unified.
MK/AK/fss/abj/APA