The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting economic growth of 4.9 percent for Morocco in 2026, supported by strong public and private investment, a favourable agricultural season and improved fiscal balances.
An IMF mission led by Laura Jaramillo visited Rabat from 29 January to 11 February to assess the kingdom’s macroeconomic conditions and medium-term outlook. Following consultations with the government, Bank Al-Maghrib and representatives from both the public and private sectors, the international financial institution indicated that economic growth is estimated to have reached 4.9 percent in 2025 and is expected to remain at the same level in 2026. The momentum is attributed to solid agricultural performance, accelerated investment and the resilience of the services sector.
Inflation remained contained in 2025, averaging 0.8 percent for the year, largely reflecting subdued food price pressures. The IMF expects inflation to gradually rise toward 2 percent by mid-2027, driven by strengthening economic activity and the lagged effects of previous policy rate adjustments. On the external front, a moderate widening of the current account deficit is anticipated, due to the high import content of investment projects, partially offset by rising tourism revenues and foreign direct investment inflows. International reserves are considered adequate.
Public finances showed notable improvement, according to the mission’s findings. Tax revenues reached 24.5 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting the impact of tax reforms and strengthened revenue administration. The budget deficit stood at 3.5 percent of GDP, below the initial projection of 3.8 percent. Part of the additional revenues was allocated to increased investment spending and transfers to public institutions and state-owned enterprises. However, the IMF recommended saving a portion of excess revenues to rebuild fiscal buffers and prioritise investment in human capital.
On the monetary front, Bank Al-Maghrib’s broadly neutral policy stance was deemed appropriate in the context of subdued inflation. The IMF encouraged continued gradual progress toward greater exchange rate flexibility, in line with the inflation-targeting framework. It also welcomed advances in strengthening the medium-term fiscal framework and public investment management, while calling for improved identification and communication of fiscal risks, particularly those related to state-owned enterprises.
Finally, the IMF stressed that sustaining growth will require durable job creation. This will depend on a more competitive business climate, a more dynamic private sector and better alignment between skills and labour market needs, notably within the framework of the “Employment Roadmap 2030.”
MK/AK/lb/as/APA