The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Libya’s GDP to grow in 2025, supported by a potential rebound in global oil prices but warns that both the fiscal and external deficits could deepen if oil prices remain subdued.
According to IMF experts, Libya’s economy could experience a recovery next year, provided there is a swift rise in crude prices.
It cautions, however, that prolonged low prices could further strain public finances and widen the current account deficit.
The warning was issued in a statement released following talks in Tunis with officials from the Central Bank of Libya.
The IMF identifies the absence of a unified national budget as the country’s main vulnerability. Political divisions have led to “uncontrolled” public spending, placing pressure on foreign reserves and widening the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates of the dinar.
Despite these challenges, reserves are deemed “adequate” and inflation remains low.
The institution urges, as a priority, the adoption of a unified budget supported by comprehensive reforms, along with faster progress on subsidy reform — a key measure to restore fiscal discipline amid ongoing oil price volatility.
The IMF also welcomes recent monetary measures implemented by the Central Bank of Libya and its adherence to the Central Bank Transparency Code, steps expected to strengthen monetary governance.
The Fund reiterates its commitment to supporting Libyan authorities in enhancing institutional capacity — a critical condition for ensuring lasting macroeconomic stability.
MK/te/lb/as/APA