Morocco could integrate the Top 60 largest global economies within the next fifteen years, with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) approaching $400 billion, according to a report published at the end of December 2025 by the CEBR, a British institution. The report projects a GDP of $389 billion by 2040, compared to a current estimate of $178 billion.
According to these projections, the Moroccan economy is set to show a progression of nearly 76% over the period, a trajectory described as “ambitious but credible” by the report’s authors. This momentum would allow the kingdom to consolidate its position among emerging economies with high potential, in an international context marked by industrial restructuring and accelerated energy transitions.
The economic indicators already support this scenario. The CEBR recalls that Morocco’s real growth was estimated at 3.8% in 2024, while official government forecasts anticipate a rate of 4.5% by 2026.
This resilience is attributed to the progressive diversification of the productive apparatus, notably thanks to the rise in power of the automotive industry, aeronautics, and value-added services, thereby reducing the structural dependence on agricultural performance.
On the social front, the report anticipates positive spillover effects for the population. GDP per capita is expected to reach approximately $9,095 in 2040, supported by the expansion of the middle class and more inclusive wealth creation. This evolution is presented as a potential lever for improving the standard of living, provided that growth translates into sustainable job gains.
The CEBR nonetheless stresses that this trajectory remains conditional on the country’s ability to overcome several structural challenges. Vulnerability to climate change remains a major risk, weighing on agriculture, water security, and budgetary balances.
The authors therefore call for increased investment in climate adaptation and continued reforms to support sustainable growth.
The report concludes that by 2040, Morocco has solid assets to reach a new economic level, provided it successfully combines industrial performance, social inclusion, and environmental resilience.
MK/ak/sf/lb/as/APA