The growing lag between discovery and first production in oil and gas projects reflects the depletion of easy-to-reach reserves and a shift toward deeper, technically demanding reservoirs — particularly offshore — according to a new report by the NGO Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
New oil and gas extraction projects now take an average of more than fifteen years from discovery to the start of production — roughly three times longer than at the industry’s peak — GEM said in a statement released Tuesday.
Based on data drawn from the Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker (GOGET), the analysis found that projects that began producing in 2025 required an average of 15.1 years of development, compared to just 4.9 years between 1960 and 1980, the period widely regarded as the golden age of conventional oil and gas discovery.
Development timelines were at their longest between 2010 and 2020, averaging close to sixteen years from discovery to production. In 2019, that figure peaked at 20.7 years, driven in part by significant delays affecting several Russian projects.
The report attributes this trend to the exhaustion of easily accessible deposits and a broader industry shift toward deeper, high-pressure and technically complex reservoirs. Offshore developments take an average of three additional years to bring online compared to onshore projects.
These findings align with assessments from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has also flagged lengthening development cycles as the most accessible reserves become increasingly scarce.
GEM warns that extended timelines heighten companies’ exposure to cost overruns, regulatory shifts and demand volatility — risks that are compounding in an environment of mounting uncertainty over the long-term outlook for hydrocarbons.
Under the IEA’s net-zero emissions scenario, upstream investment in oil and gas is set to decline sharply over time, which could fundamentally reshape the policy and economic landscape for projects currently in the pipeline.
“Fifteen-year development cycles mean companies are making long-term bets on a highly uncertain future. At a time when major carbon-sector companies are facing tighter margins and falling oil prices, pushing ahead with costly and unnecessary projects looks like a losing proposition,” said Scott Zimmerman, GOGET project lead and co-author of the report.
He argued that capital should be redirected toward demand reduction and renewable energy — sectors he views as far better positioned to deliver genuine energy security.
ARD/Sf/lb/as/APA