After recent events precipitated an army takeover in Guinea-Bissau, there remain question mark about the nature of the coup which quietly removed President Umaro Sissoco Embaló.
It was the culimination of a tense political atmosphere precipitated by the dispute outcome of Guinea-Bissau’s disputed elections which both incumbent Embaló and Fernando Dias da Costa, backed by the PRS and the Terra Ranka Coalition, claimed victory.
The West African regional grouping Ecowas had praised the November 23rd election as largely free and fair but the disputed claims by the two leading contenders had set the scene for a tense final few days during which the military had intervened, detaining both Embaló and da Costa.
Those emerging as the main powers behind the coup have formed the High Military Council for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order led by Gen Horta N’Tam.
Embaló, a cereer soldier who later became president, at least temporarily begins life in exile in neigbouring Senegal as Gen N’Tam, formerly head of the presidential guard assumes leadership of the country on a one-year transition after being sworn-into office in a subdued ceremony.
Meanwhile inevitable questions have been swirling over the coup and Mr Embaló’s alleged role in it.
There is a barely hidden suspicion by many in the West African nation of 2.8 million people that the 53-year old former prime minister had orchestrated a political ruse which brought his own downfall, all calculated to stop da Costa from being declared the outright winner of the polls to become his successor at the helm.
Some of this suspicion comes from none other than civil society groups in Guinea-Bissau wary of the ousted president’s supposed machinations in the past which ‘made a fool of Bissauguineans’.
They say a simulated putsch may have been the idea of Mr Embaló which was brought into fruition by his allies in the military who share his conviction against the opposition taking charge of the country.
da Costa draped himself with no favours by condemning the military intervention, accusing its leaders of hijacking his ”hard won election victory” after the announcement of the results were halted and the electoral commission workers sent home.
Critics who wish to remain nameless say Embaló was still received presidential treatment while under a so called detention with telephone access which allowed him to be interviewed by international news media.
”To say he was well treated will be something of an understatement” says one critic who adds: ”He was no longer acting like the president but he was still being treated like one as he was flown out of the country to Senegal on a chartered flight”.
While the African Union and Ecowas have condemned the coup, Embaló’s posture over all this has not helped in allaying public suspicion in Guinea-Bissau that he deliberately brought his own downfall as the easy way out of a political crisis which found its roots in his controversial U-turn two months after publicly announcing in September 2024 that In September he was not running for re-election. Guinea-Bissau, a country that has witnessed a dozen coups and attempted coups since 1980, was driven to the political precipice after Embaló declared that he would remain president beyond 2030 when his first time had originally ended in February 2025. The opposition went up in arms against this, accusing him of autocratic behaviour which undermined Guinea-Bissau’s fledgling democracy.
Against this backdrop the Constitutional Court set 4 September this year as the date in which Embaló’s first term came to an end almost one year after the original expiration of his mandate.
His critics say he had a penchant for authoritarianism when things were not going his way politically, like dissolving an opposition-dominated parliament in 2022 and a year later with reports of an abortive coup against him which gave him a pretext to crack down on opponents.
They said if carrying out a ‘constitutional coup’ to consolidate his power in 2023 was never beyond him, throwing the spanner in the works of Guinea-Bissau’s democratic process following his apparent defeat at the polls would not be put past him with any degree of certainty.
WN/as/APA