The International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned that a deadly conflict involving the Ethiopian federal government, Tigray region and Eritrea could erupt at any time.
“Tensions are running high among the Ethiopian federal government, Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and neighbouring Eritrea, threatening a return to deadly conflict three years after the last war ended African states and outside powers should urgently open back channels among the three governments to defuse tensions,” ICG said in its latest report.
ICG warned that if the war occurs, it would be devastating for all three players in a region where past conflicts have cost hundreds of thousands of lives.
It said the war would also overlap with the fighting in neighbouring Sudan, dragging in powerful states from outside the Horn of Africa and further roiling the volatile Red Sea region.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea further soured when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that his country must secure sea access at all cost.
With Ethiopia and Eritrea at loggerheads, Addis Ababa also accused the leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), its foe in the last war, of forging a clandestine alliance with Asmara.
Ethiopia formally notified the United Nations Secretary-General that Eritrea was “actively preparing for war.” Addis Ababa alleged that Eritrea was collaborating with non-state actors to destabilse Ethiopia – allegations that further inflamed tensions and triggered renewed troop mobilisation at their shared border.
Last October, Ahmed called for international mediation to find a “peaceful resolution” with Eritrea that would secure landlocked Ethiopia access to the sea.
In an address to parliament, he specifically mentioned the United States, China, Russia and the European Union as potential mediators, although regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey could also play a role.
Ahmed further insisted that his country had “no intention of going to war with Eritrea.” “On the contrary, we are convinced that this issue can be resolved peacefully,” he added, while stressing that his country’s demand for access to the sea was “irreversible.”
Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the sea through Eritrea has long been one of the main sources of hostility between the two countries.
Although relations thawed in 2018 and they joined forces in 2020 to fight the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, during the war in Tigray, tensions returned since that conflict ended in 2020.
They have reached a new level in recent months.
MG/as/APA