Ambassador Cheikh Niang, former Permanent Representative of Senegal to the United Nations, has issued a stark warning regarding the profound repercussions of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict on the international order, particularly for Africa and Senegal.
In a recent op-ed, Niang cautioned that the crisis could usher in a prolonged phase of asymmetric conflict, intertwining military, economic, and symbolic tensions, and called for a strategic, multifaceted global response.
Niang’s analysis, published after Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, and Tehran’s subsequent response, highlights the immediate surge in oil prices, exacerbated by the threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade. This strategic corridor, through which a quarter of the world’s oil transits, exposes the fragility of the global trading system. Niang argues this situation risks unbalancing African economies, already weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and climate change.
For Senegal, this energy dependency could trigger a domino effect: increased agricultural input costs, pressure on transportation, food price tensions, and potential social unrest. Even major domestic gas and oil projects at Grand Tortue Ahmeyim and Sangomar may not offer sufficient short-term protection. If international financing tightens, these strategic investments could be delayed or jeopardized.
The ambassador draws parallels to the 1973 oil crisis, underscoring the dangers of imported inflation combined with an economic slowdown. He notes Senegal’s delicate fiscal situation, marked by high public debt and limited fiscal space, warning that any interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank would increase external debt servicing, at the expense of social spending.
Niang also emphasizes the diplomatic complexities Africa could face. The continent is currently courted by both Israel, through security and technological cooperation, and Iran, which maintains religious and political connections. Senegal, with its Sunni Maliki majority and moderate diplomatic stance, will need to strike a delicate balance. “Any unbalanced stance could generate side effects: friction with economic partners, internal tensions, or political recovery,” he warned.
The ambassador outlines three potential scenarios, a prolonged conflict with regional logistical disruptions and a global recession, severely impacting African economies, a contained conflict with gradual stabilization, and a major explosion leading to a widening conflict and brutal geopolitical realignments.
Beyond cyclical risks, Niang views this crisis as a revelation of African vulnerabilities. He advocates for a strategic reconfiguration: fostering food sovereignty, diversifying energy sources, partially relocating value chains, and improving public governance. He asserts that Africa must integrate the possibility of major geopolitical unrest into its national planning.
In conclusion, Niang stresses the importance of more assertive diplomacy, a resilient economic strategy, and far-sighted governance, echoing Zbigniew Brzezinski’s strategic warning: “Geopolitics is the art of foresight on a continental scale.”
AC/Sf/fss/abj/APA