A joint report by the African Union, the AfDB, and UN agencies, presented at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington on April 17, 2026, warns that escalating Middle East tensions could reduce Africa’s economic growth by 0.2 percentage points this year.
The document, titled “Impacts of the Middle East conflict on African economies,” identifies the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a primary risk that could destabilize global trade and paralyze regional transport. This specific disruption is critical because Africa relies on the Middle East for 80% of its imported oil and 50% of its refined products, making the continent highly susceptible to price spikes in hydrocarbons, food, and fertilizers.
Beyond energy costs, the report highlights that 31 African nations are already grappling with significant currency depreciation, which compounds the pressure on financial markets and exchange rates. In response to these vulnerabilities, AfDB Chief Economist Kevin Urama and other development leaders are urging African governments to maintain strict fiscal discipline and avoid broad-based subsidies that could drain public reserves. Instead, the report recommends targeted social protections for vulnerable populations, the strategic use of national energy reserves, and improved debt oversight to ensure long-term stability.
To build immunity against these external shocks, the partner institutions emphasized the need to accelerate the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and diversify energy and food supply sources. UN and UNDP officials stressed that achieving energy independence through innovation, digitalization, and artificial intelligence is no longer optional but a necessity to safeguard the development goals of Agenda 2063. The report concludes that while Africa has demonstrated strong resilience in the face of previous global crises, coordinated action and emergency financing from development partners will be essential to protecting the continent’s recent economic gains.
TE/Sf/lb/abj/APA