Morocco aiming for 5% growth in 2026

The Moroccan economy is expected to register 5% growth in 2026, following 4.7% growth in 2025, according to the 2026 Economic Forecast Budget published by the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

This growth is expected to be fueled by a marked improvement in agricultural conditions and continued investment momentum, within a context of gradual macroeconomic stabilisation.

The HCP indicates that the value added of the agricultural sector is projected to increase by 10.4% in 2026, after several seasons marked by adverse weather conditions.

This performance is expected to be based on more favourable weather conditions and the gradual rebuilding
of the national livestock herd. Non-agricultural activities are expected to maintain a growth rate of around 4.3%, driven primarily by manufacturing, construction, and market services.

Domestic demand is projected to remain the main driver of economic activity. Household final consumption is expected to increase by 4.1%, fueled by rising incomes and easing inflationary pressures. At the same time, gross investment is expected to maintain a strong trajectory, driven by major infrastructure projects, ongoing sectoral
programs, and preparations for hosting international events in Morocco.

This investment momentum, however, is expected to be offset by a high level of imports. According to HCP projections, the trade deficit is projected to reach 21.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, reflecting the increased dependence on capital goods and inputs necessary for the execution of major infrastructure projects.

In terms of public finances, the outlook points to a gradual improvement.

Continued tax reform and increased ordinary revenues should allow the budget deficit to be reduced to 3.2% of GDP in 2026.

At the same time, overall public debt is expected to continue its decline, reaching 77.5% of GDP, confirming, according to the HCP, the consolidation efforts undertaken in recent years.

In an international environment characterised by moderate global growth and falling commodity prices, these official projections reflect the Moroccan authorities’ strategy of consolidating macroeconomic stability while accelerating the structural transformation of the national economy.

MK/Sf/fss/as/APA