The Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL), Mr. Bayo Ojulari, says that the national oil company is ramping up AI pilots and digital mining of decades-old data to slash costs and propel Nigeria’s upstream sector toward a 3 million barrels per day (bpd) production goal.
Ojulari, who was represented by the Executive Vice President, Upstream, Udobong Ntia, said on Thursday at the 2026 Oloibiri Lecture and Energy Forum held in Abuja, stated that beyond funding, Nigeria must urgently embrace digital transformation, warning that failure to adopt artificial intelligence could leave operators uncompetitive.
“I’ve been preaching AI for a long time, and it has now become an imperative. If we don’t do it, we’re going to be buried, frankly. It is no longer a nice-to-have. It is an absolute necessity. We have spent a lot of money digitising our data, but if we don’t mine it, we will lose one of the most critical variables in the oil industry—data. We have to learn how to mine it.
He disclosed that resolution of long-standing disputes and previously stalled Final Investment Decisions had significantly boosted investor confidence in Nigeria.
“Shortening the project cycle is very important. It would help us a lot. The resolution of long-standing issues, including legacy asset disputes and previously stalled FIDs, has unlocked significant investor confidence. These interventions have contributed over $24bn in capital investment from just two projects.
“I haven’t even added Owowo. There is an extra $10bn in the works and some others that we are looking at very closely. Bosi has just passed gate one with the operators. Who knew Bosi would be headline news? There is a lot to look forward to,” he said.
The NNPCL boss explained that Nigeria now has a potential investment pipeline of about $34bn, combining confirmed and prospective inflows, describing it as a strong signal of renewed global confidence in the country’s oil and gas sector.
“We have to do it as an imperative; otherwise, our costs will balloon out of this world. There’s so much we can do, and we need to stay focused on that. The theme before us, beyond the 3 million barrels target, is both timely and instructive. It recognises that reaching and sustaining 3 million barrels per day is not merely a production aspiration but a commercial, regulatory, and capital and digital opportunity. It is not just the operators that need to move in that direction; it is also the service providers.”
According to him, Nigeria holds decades of untapped data dating back to the first commercial oil discovery in 1956, much of which remains underutilised.
“We have logs still on paper, seismic data that have not been analysed. There is so much we can do. With technology alone, the three-million-barrel target is within sight in the next three to four years,” he stated.
Ojulari outlined a three-pronged strategy by NNPCL to achieve the production target, including protecting existing assets, accelerating near-term production growth, and restructuring the company’s portfolio to attract new investors.
He said, “To support Nigeria’s aspiration to reach and sustain three million barrels per day, NNPC Limited is executing a clearly sequenced, commercially grounded, three-stage strategy. And I want you to listen to this.
“The first one, we are protecting the base. Very important, we protect the base. What has been produced, the assets we have, ensure we keep integrity going.
“I want to eliminate two words from our dictionary in the upstream: ‘aged facilities’. Some of us have worked abroad, and when we see facilities, a 10-year-old asset is still treated as brand new because of the maintenance culture. So the culture has to change across the board.
“Second, accelerating near-term growth through innovative commercial and financing frameworks, including alternative funding structures and optimised risk sharing, we are fast-tracking mature projects capable of delivering incremental barrels in the near term.
“The third thing we are working on is a strategic portfolio review. We are reshaping our portfolio to unlock value, to enable new oil from new players. We want to deepen indigenous participation and attract capital and capabilities. Capital flows to the path of least resistance. It does not like uncertainty. When you make a law, you stay with it.”
He added improved regulatory clarity under the Petroleum Industry Act has helped eliminate funding bottlenecks, particularly the long-standing issue of cash call arrears.
“I don’t think any company can say it has struggled with cash calls in the last one and a half years. The PIA has helped tremendously,” he said.
He described the three-million-barrel target as more than a production goal, saying it is a test of Nigeria’s regulatory efficiency, capital discipline, and digital readiness.
“We are grateful for the PIA and the executive orders that the President has signed in the last year. They have really helped advance a number of things. We have seen movements in some deepwater assets that have been in legacy litigation for a while, inching closer to Final Investment Decisions. We are glad to have them in our portfolio to make up the 3 million barrels target. We think it is going to be more, but let’s just stick to 3m barrels,” he added.
The lecture, which is in its 26th edition, was themed: “Beyond the Three Million Barrels Target: Harmonising Digitalisation, Capital and Policy Frameworks for Intelligent Operations and Asset Optimisation” and it was organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
GIK/APA