A new foresight report co-published by the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), the Senegalese Institute of Agricultural Research (ISRA), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) outlines two possible scenarios for the future of Senegalese agriculture by 2050: an agroecological model and an agro-industrial model.
Senegal’s agriculture stands at a crossroads as it faces three major challenges that will determine its future. The country must first guarantee sufficient, healthy, diverse, nutritious, and affordable food for a population set to double over the next three decades.
At the same time, the agricultural sector must provide decent work and attractive incomes for younger generations, many of whom are already unemployed today. This transformation must also safeguard ecosystems and adapt to climate change to preserve long-term productive capacity.
Entitled “AgroEco2050-Senegal”, the research adopts a participatory foresight approach that combines expert knowledge with a biophysical and economic model, Agribiom, to assess the challenges for Senegalese agriculture by 2050, explained CIRAD researchers Rémi Prudhomme, Marc Piraux, and Bruno Dorin, authors of the report.
The study sets out two radically different pathways. On one side, the agroecological scenario emphasises an extensive approach, mobilising more labour and restoring degraded land.
“The key difference between the two scenarios lies in the use, in the agroecological scenario, of greater manpower, ecological processes that reduce industrial inputs, and more land, particularly through the restoration of degraded areas,” noted Cheickh Sadibou Fall, ISRA researcher and co-author of the report.
By contrast, the agro-industrial scenario focuses on intensification through chemical inputs and mechanisation. This path allows for higher yields on larger farms, but the productivity gains benefit a smaller number of farmers.
Despite their fundamental differences, both scenarios converge on one essential point: the need to increase farm incomes. According to experts, such improvements are a prerequisite for making agriculture viable and attractive to young people.
The scope of this foresight exercise extends beyond academia. “In the immediate term, these findings will inform the development of a new national strategy for agroecology and organic agriculture in Senegal, initiated by the government with the participation of stakeholders,” explained Anne-Sophie Poisot of the FAO’s Innovation Office.
This initiative is part of a global project launched by the FAO in 2022, with financial support from Germany, aimed at strengthening the role of foresight processes in supporting the transformation of food systems through agroecology.
Around twenty experts from the agricultural sector, research institutions, ministries, the private sector, and civil society took part in this participatory process.
ARD/ac/lb/as/APA