Presented as a pivotal year, 2025 primarily confirmed Tunisia’s difficulty in escaping sluggish growth, largely dependent on cyclical factors and lacking any visible structural shift.
The year 2025 did not mark the hoped-for economic recovery in Tunisia.
Despite estimated growth of around 2.6 percent, the economy remains mired in insufficient momentum to reduce unemployment, sustainably restore purchasing power, or revive investment.
This performance, while an improvement compared to 2024, remains far below the needs of a country facing a persistent social crisis.
The relative stabilisation of macroeconomic indicators relies mainly on fragile support. Agriculture, boosted by favorable weather conditions, tourism, which has returned to near pre-Covid levels, and
remittances from Tunisians abroad have acted as a buffer.
This increased dependence on traditional sectors that generate little value underscores the lack of genuine economic diversification and the difficulty in initiating a new growth cycle.
The gradual decline in inflation and the monetary easing implemented by the Central Bank have
provided limited relief.
provided limited relief.
Behind these signs, domestic demand remains sluggish and private investment hesitant, in a climate marked by regulatory uncertainty and poor economic visibility.
The recovery in phosphate production and the increase in foreign investment, often highlighted, do not compensate for years of underperformance and remain insufficient to transform the productive structure.
Looking ahead to 2026, the authorities have set a higher growth target within the framework of the 2026-2030 development plan, aligned with President Kais Saied’s vision.
However, in the absence of profound economic reforms already underway, these projections appear uncertain.
Ultimately, 2025 will have primarily confirmed a worrying reality: Tunisia avoided the shock, without managing to initiate a robust recovery, leaving intact the risk of a lasting economic and social stagnation.
MK/Sf/fss/as/APA