The World Bank says global commodity prices are projected to rise by 23 per cent in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and weather-related risks.
The projection is contained in the bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released on Oct. 28, 2026.
The report said that energy prices were expected to increase by 32 per cent in 2026, reversing three years of declines, before moderating in 2027.
It projected Brent crude oil to average 91 dollars per barrel in 2026, up from 69 dollars in 2025, before declining to 79 dollars in 2027.
According to the report, the conflict in the Middle East has reduced oil inventories and increased the risk of further supply disruptions.
It said that global oil supply was projected to decline by 5.2 per cent in 2026, the largest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession.
Oil consumption was also expected to fall by 2.5 per cent, marking its third-largest annual contraction on record.
The report attributed the decline to high prices and supply shortages, as well as reduced oil use through electrification, particularly in China.
It warned that depleted oil stocks had left global markets more exposed to further supply shocks.
The World Bank projected food commodity prices to increase by about 10 per cent in 2026 and another seven per cent in 2027, representing a cumulative rise of 18 per cent.
It attributed the expected increase to disrupted grain shipments, possible El Niño-related harvest losses and higher fuel and fertiliser costs.
The report said that fertiliser prices were projected to rise by 14 per cent in 2026, following an earlier surge in urea prices, before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
It also projected metal prices to increase by 25 per cent in 2026, reaching a new high, before declining by three per cent in 2027.
The prices of aluminium, copper and tin were expected to reach record levels, driven by demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres, alongside supply disruptions.
Precious metals prices were forecast to rise by 40 per cent in 2026 as demand for safe-haven assets remained elevated amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
The report, however, warned that commodity prices could rise further if conflicts affecting global supplies intensified.
It said that a combination of higher-than-expected energy prices, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a severe El Niño could trigger a food crisis.
Under such an adverse scenario, Brent crude could average 105 dollars per barrel in 2027, while food commodity prices could be 12 per cent above the baseline forecast.
The bank warned that such developments could push more people into extreme poverty, similar to the situation experienced in the early 2010s.
Commenting on the outlook, Mr Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, said that several major shocks were affecting commodity markets simultaneously.
“Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth,” he said.
Kose said that priority should be given to protecting vulnerable populations and supporting low-income countries facing heavy debt burdens.
To help countries manage the impact of rising prices, the World Bank Group said that it had made between 50 billion dollars and 60 billion dollars available through existing financing instruments.
GIK/APA