Economic growth remained positive across the 12 ECOWAS states in 2024, yet disparities in inflation, public deficits, and debt levels – alongside persistent food insecurity – continue to weigh on the region’s economic stability.
All 12 member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) recorded positive growth in 2024, though significant variations emerged regarding inflation, public finances, debt, and food security, according to national reports published in March 2026 as part of the 2025 edition of the ECOWAS Regional Economic Outlook (PERC).
Benin posted the region’s highest growth rate in 2024 at 7.5% – up from 6.4% in 2023 – followed by Cabo Verde (7.2%), Guinea (6.6%), Togo (6.3%), Senegal (6.1%), and Côte d’Ivoire (6%).
In Benin, growth reached its highest level since 1990. In Cabo Verde, it was driven largely by tourism. Guinea benefited from gains in the services, construction, and energy sectors, while Senegal saw an acceleration linked to the start of oil production in June 2024.
Senegal’s secondary sector grew by 18.7%, with oil production reaching 16.9 million barrels by year-end, whereas the primary sector contracted by 3%.
Côte d’Ivoire recorded 6% growth, with increases of 2.6% in the primary sector, 5.8% in the secondary sector, and 6.7% in the tertiary sector.
Ghana grew by 5.7% and The Gambia by 5.6%. Sierra Leone (4.4%), Nigeria (4.1%), Guinea-Bissau (4.1%), and Liberia (4%) are recording growth rates below 5%.
Mixed inflation trends
Inflation remains contained in several UEMOA economies, notably Senegal (0.8%), Benin (1.2%), Togo (3.1%), Côte d’Ivoire (3.5%), and Guinea-Bissau (3.7%). It stands at 1% in Cabo Verde.
Conversely, it stands at 23.8% in Ghana and 33.2% in Nigeria, where food inflation has reached 39.8%. Guinea shows an annual average of 5.1%, compared to 8.3% in Liberia and 11.7% in The Gambia.
Sierra Leone is experiencing significant disinflation, with the rate dropping from 52.2% in 2023 to 13.8% in December 2024.
High budget deficits
Senegal records the region’s highest budget deficit in 2024 at 13.4% of GDP, compared to an initial forecast of 3.5%. Ghana and Sierra Leone follow with 7.9% and 5.6%, respectively.
The deficit stands at 4.3% in Guinea, and 4% in both Côte d’Ivoire and The Gambia. Nigeria has reduced its deficit to 3.5% of GDP, or 3% according to the Central Bank.
In Benin, the deficit has been reduced to 3% of GDP – down from 4.1% in 2023 – enabling the country to meet the UEMOA convergence criterion. Liberia reports an overall surplus of 0.09% of GDP, while also noting a deficit of 2.3% elsewhere.
High public debt
Public debt stands at 111.4% of GDP in Cabo Verde, 86.6% in Guinea-Bissau, 83.7% in Senegal, and 81% in The Gambia.
In Senegal, the 83.7% ratio applies to 2023 and amounts to 15,664 billion CFA francs, according to the preliminary report by the General Inspectorate of Finance. Guinea-Bissau thus exceeds the regional ceiling of 70%.
Togo shows an average ratio of 63.2% for the 2022-2024 period, with a debt stock of 4,218 billion CFA francs in 2024. Debt levels reach 61.8% in Ghana, 59.5% in Côte d’Ivoire, and 54.9% in Liberia.
Guinea and Nigeria show ratios of 40.7% and 39.4%, respectively. In Benin, the ratio – 53.4% in 2024 – is projected to fall to 47.6% by 2028.
Mixed external accounts
Liberia posts the largest current account surplus, at 14.2% of GDP, ahead of Ghana (4.4%) and Cabo Verde (3.8%).
In Senegal, the current account deficit narrowed from 19.8% of GDP in 2023 to 12.5% in 2024, dropping from 3,683.6 billion CFA francs to 2,477.7 billion CFA francs. Benin reduced its deficit to 6.7%, down from 8.2% in 2023.
Sierra Leone cut its deficit from 9.5% to 4.3%, despite reserves falling to $410 million – equivalent to 2.1 months of imports. Côte d’Ivoire records a current account deficit of 4%, The Gambia 3.2%, and Togo 2.9%.
Poverty and food security
Poverty affects 60% of the population in Sierra Leone, 53.4% in The Gambia, and 50.5% in Guinea-Bissau. In Liberia, multidimensional poverty affects 52.3% of the population.
The rate is 43.8% in Togo, 39.8% in Nigeria, and 37.5% in Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. In Benin, it is estimated at around 31% in 2024.
Food insecurity affects 82% of the population in Sierra Leone and 77.9% in Nigeria, while severe food insecurity affects 18% and 25.7% of households, respectively.
In Togo, food insecurity affects between 57% and 58.5% of the population, while in Ghana it reaches 44.5%. When measured at the household level, it affects 26% in Benin, approximately 24% in The Gambia, 22% in Guinea-Bissau, and 21.8% in Guinea.
In Côte d’Ivoire, it affects 10.9% of households, reaching a level of 38% in the Tonkpi region. In Liberia, the rate is projected to drop to 20.7% in 2025 – down from 47% in 2022 – though undernourishment still affects 38.4% of the population.
The reports cite factors such as low levels of agricultural mechanization, limited irrigation capacity, post-harvest losses, climate shocks, and reliance on rice imports.
Growth outlook
For the coming years, Guinea projects average growth of 10.1% over the 2025–2028 period, driven notably by the Simandou 2040 programme.
Senegal forecasts 7.8% growth in 2025; Benin projects an average of 7.5%; and Côte d’Ivoire anticipates 6.3% in 2025 and 2026, rising to 7.5% in 2027.
The Gambia forecasts 5.9% growth in 2025, compared to 5.5% for Cabo Verde and Guinea-Bissau. Liberia projects 5.1% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026.
Sierra Leone forecasts average growth of 4.6%. Nigeria projects 4.6% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026, and 5.5% in 2027.
External Shocks
The reports analyse, among other things, the impact of the suspension of US aid, the increase in US tariffs, and the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS.
In Liberia, the revenue loss resulting from the suspension of US aid is estimated at $265.6 million for the 2025-2029 period.
In Senegal, exports to the United States account for 3.4% of the total and are subject to a 10% duty.
The reports from Côte d’Ivoire and Togo also mention export restrictions on certain foodstuffs – deemed contrary to the ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme (ETLS) – while the Ghanaian report highlights their impact on regional food trade.
For its part, the report from Cabo Verde identifies restrictive US migration policies as a factor likely to affect its economy.
AC/Sf/fss/gik/APA