President Hakainde Hichilema is strongly favoured to retain power in Thursday’s general election, with a new analysis giving him a three‑quarters chance of securing an outright first‑round victory.
The report, published on 8 August by the Public Affairs Research Institute in Africa, estimates the governing United Party for National Development (UPND) has a 70–80 percent likelihood of crossing the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a run‑off.
It places the chance of a second round at 15-25 percent.
Authored by Blessing Vava of the Southern Africa Coalition for Democracy and Accountability and Tamuka Chirimambowa of the Masosote Institute for Political Economy, the report argues that UPND’s advantage stems less from popularity than from structural factors.
Ballot access is highlighted as the clearest edge: UPND is contesting all 226 parliamentary constituencies and nearly every mayoral and ward seat, while its main rival, the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP), is fielding far fewer candidates.
“The gap is not a matter of interpretation, it is recorded in the nomination returns, and it compounds downward, widest at ward level, where the machinery of election day actually sits.”
The analysis also points to opposition fragmentation as a decisive factor. Fourteen presidential candidates are on the ballot, splitting the anti‑incumbent vote across a crowded field.
“A first‑round UPND victory is the most likely single outcome,” the report concludes, while cautioning that underlying anti‑incumbent sentiment persists among some voters.
Zambians head to the polls on 13 August to elect a president, members of parliament, and local government representatives.
JN/APA