Morocco’s central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% and is projecting a sharp acceleration in growth for 2026, against a backdrop of heightened global uncertainty.
Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) decided to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% following its Board meeting, according to an official statement. The decision comes amid an international environment deemed deeply uncertain, shaped by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine and the direction of U.S. trade policy. The institution noted that these factors are placing growing pressure on the resilience of the global economy, with effects already visible on financial markets and commodity prices — energy in particular.
According to BAM, the impact of these tensions on the domestic economy should remain contained in the event of a short-lived conflict, but could intensify if hostilities are prolonged. The primary transmission channel identified is the external accounts, notably through energy price volatility. Against this backdrop, the central bank said it will continue to monitor international developments and their implications for the Moroccan economy closely.
On the domestic front, the overall outlook appears broadly favourable. BAM highlighted the strength of non-agricultural activity, underpinned by robust investment momentum in economic and social infrastructure. At the same time, the agricultural sector is expected to stage a significant rebound, driven by particularly favourable weather conditions. The cereal harvest is estimated at 82 million quintals for the current season, based on a planted area of 3.9 million hectares.
Amid this context, national economic growth — estimated at 4.8% in 2025 — is projected to reach 5.6% in 2026, before easing to 3.5% in 2027. Agricultural value added is forecast to grow by 14.4% in 2026, following several years of drought-induced weakness, before contracting by 5.3% the following year under the assumption of an average cereal harvest. Non-agricultural activity, for its part, is expected to maintain a sustained growth rate of around 4.5%.
On the price front, inflation is currently running at low levels, supported by improved food supply and retreating fuel prices. It is expected to remain moderate over the medium term, settling at 0.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, despite an anticipated rise in oil prices in the central scenario. In this context, BAM considers current monetary conditions to remain appropriate and indicated it will calibrate its policy at successive meetings in line with the most recent economic data.
MK/AK/Sf/lb/as/APA