A report by the Russian International Affairs Council concludes that the Western Sahara conflict is primarily a confrontation between Morocco and Algeria, while Rabat’s diplomatic standing continues to strengthen.
The RIAC, a Moscow-based think tank established in 2010 under the auspices of the Russian foreign affairs ministry, has concluded that one of Africa’s oldest conflicts increasingly resembles an indirect confrontation between the two countries.
In a report examining security dynamics across the Middle East and North Africa, the institution argues that the Polisario Front operates primarily as a proxy backed by Algiers.
Titled “Conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa: Current State and Possible Dynamics,” the roughly 100-page report interrogates the evolution of several regional crises. On the Western Sahara, it notes that military skirmishes between Morocco and the Polisario — reignited following the collapse of the 1991 ceasefire in November 2020 — have largely consisted of sporadic, low-intensity actions. According to the authors, the movement’s military capabilities remain limited and do not allow it to inflict significant losses on Moroccan forces.
The report also highlights the consistency of Morocco’s position, grounded in territorial integrity and the gradual integration of the southern provinces into the country’s administrative and economic framework. It points to investments made in these territories and the diplomatic strategy pursued by Rabat to broaden international recognition of its sovereignty.
The RIAC underscores Algeria’s decisive role in the conflict, arguing that the Polisario is heavily dependent on Algiers for political, economic and logistical support. The organisation reportedly manages the Tindouf camps through a system of redistributing international aid — a dynamic that deepens its reliance on Algerian authorities.
On the diplomatic front, the study notes a trend favuorable to Morocco. The number of states recognising the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) is said to have declined over the years, while several countries have opened consular representations in the southern provinces.
The report also points out that the autonomy proposal put forward by Rabat in 2007 remains the primary basis for international discourse on a political solution.
Finally, the think tank outlines several possible trajectories for the conflict. The most likely scenario, in its assessment, is a gradual strengthening of Morocco’s diplomatic position, accompanied by sporadic low-intensity incidents. It also paints a possible scenario involving regional escalation with Algeria directly implicated. However, this is deemed unlikely by the report’s authors.
MK/AK/Sf/lb/as/APA